[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W EQ20W 2S30W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR
3S40W.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 7S-4N BETWEEN
39W-43W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SE GEORGIA NEAR 31N81W.  FLORIDA
PRESENTLY HAS LIGHT NELY WINDS.  10-20 KT SELY WINDS ARE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO W OF 85W DUE TO RETURN FLOW.  BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS ARE ALSO W OF 85W WHILE FLORIDA AND THE E GULF HAS MOSTLY
FAIR SKIES.  RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WILL BRING THE
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE LOW 50'S OVER MOST OF FLORIDA.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... RIDGING IS IS PRODUCING NWLY FLOW OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO
MOVE QUICKLY E TO THE W ATLANTIC AND THUS PRODUCE SLY SURFACE
FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. THIS SLY RETURN FLOW MAY PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO SE TEXAS BY TUESDAY EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS ALONG 20N62W 16N70W MOVING RAPIDLY E.  LIGHT RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 KT ARE ALONG THE FRONT.  THIS IS THE FIRST
COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS WINTER.  NELY
SURFACE WINDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT W OF
70W.  THE SE CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 15N AND E OF
70W ARE THE ONLY AREAS WITH LIGHT TRADEWINDS WITH PATCHES OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
RIDGING COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N53W TO 22N60W TO THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS.  LIGHT RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS OF 25 KT ARE ALONG
THE FRONT.  A SECONDARY SURGE IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
IS FURTHER W ALONG 30N60W 27N70W 28N79W.  DENSE OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS ARE N OF THIS FRONT.  A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 34N29W.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO
26N44W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
N OF 20N AND W OF 60W.  A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC BETWEEN 20W-60W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N14W.

$$
FORMOSA







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