[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 20 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N20W 3N30W 2N40W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 13W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS
WITHIN 120 NM N AND 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 26W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
WEST PORTION OF A 1028 MB SFC HIGH E OF FLORIDA IS EXTENDING
INTO THE GULF...PRODUCING 10-20 KT SLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE
BASIN. RIDGING DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS...EXTENDING N FROM ITS
ORIGIN OVER GUATEMALA. DRY/STABLE MID TO UPPER AIR EXISTS S OF
25N WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO THE N. UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE
BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH AND THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW THROUGH
THE SW U.S. IS SUPPORTING THE BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE WITH
POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR NW GULF...SE TEXAS...AND
LOUISIANA. HOWEVER...NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS PRECIP IS
REACHING THE GROUND. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MID CLOUDS ARE
IN THE GULF FROM 22N-27N...THOUGH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
DOMINATING. RETURN FLOW WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
THE SFC RIDGING WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN NEAR THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AT 18N64W AND CONTINUES WSW TO NEAR 15N76W. A TROUGH
THEN CURVES FROM THAT POINT THROUGH 15N80W 10N79W...THOUGH
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THIS TROUGH HAS
BECOME ITS OWN ENTITY...MOVING W FROM THE OLD STATIONARY FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ANTICIPATED WITHIN 60 NM OF BOTH THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND TROUGH...WITH THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH NOW MOVING INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. EXTREMELY
DRY/STABLE MID TO UPPER AIR CONTINUES TO HOVER OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...AROUND RIDGING EXTENDING E THROUGH THE BASIN FROM
GUATEMALA. MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES WILL TAKE OVER MUCH OF THE
BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AS FRONT DISSIPATES AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1028 MB SFC HIGH IS LOCATED OFFSHORE FLORIDA NEAR 30N72W. THIS
CONTINUES TO BUILD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA AT
32N42W TO 25N53W. FRONT IS THEN STATIONARY FROM THAT POINT TO
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A THIN ROPE CLOUD IS STILL NOTED WITH THIS
FRONT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ANTICIPATED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS EXISTS ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT E OF 77W. REMAINDER OF
THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC SFC PATTERN DOMINATED BY THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF A 1024 MB HIGH NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
31N21W. ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO THE FAR WRN
PORTION OF THE AREA BEHIND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW
BETWEEN BERMUDA AND HISPANIOLA. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA IS DOMINATED BY BROAD RIDGING...OUTSIDE OF A SHARP UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING S FROM SW EUROPE THROUGH NW AFRICA. FAIRLY DRY
MID TO UPPER AIR ALSO DOMINATES BETWEEN 70W-30W.

$$
WILLIS




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