[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 2N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AREA OVER NE BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK RIDGING AND A 1010
MB SFC LOW NEAR 20N95W DOMINATES THE GULF. THIS IS PRODUCING
LIGHT SLY FLOW E OF 80W. AS OF 21Z...A TROF IS ANALYZED FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO 27N90W. A ROPE OR LINE CLOUD DELINEATES
THIS TROUGH. ANOTHER SFC TROUGH IS OVER THE SE GULF AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND RUNS FROM 24N87W TO N GUATEMALA NEAR
16N89W. LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW OVER THE
SW GULF IS WEAKENING. BROKEN TO OVERCAST DEEP LAYER CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE NE GULF WATERS
COVERING ALSO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SE US. STRONG MID/UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA/SOUTH MEXICO COVERS THE ENTIRE
GULF. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS N
MEXICO INTO THE N GULF WATERS BY A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH CORE
WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT. HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WILL
SHIFT E AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI. RETURN FLOW WILL ESTABLISH AGAIN
ON SAT AHEAD OF A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG
TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
DRIVEN BY THE TRADES ARE AFFECTING THE AREA...PARTICULARLY THE E
CARIBBEAN. SOME OF THEM ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND HISPANIOLA AS WELL AS OVER THE OFFSHORE VENEZUELA
ISLANDS/ABC ISLANDS. EXTREMELY DRY/STABLE MID TO UPPER AIR
CONTINUES TO HOVER OVER THE CARIBBEAN...AROUND RIDGING EXTENDING
E THROUGH THE BASIN FROM GUATEMALA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE WITH THREE HIGH PRES CENTERS DOMINATES THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHS ARE CENTERED NEAR 25N69W...
32N44W...AND WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N23W. THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM THAT REACHED THE NE CARIBBEAN IS NOW MOVING N AS A WARM
FRONT. IT LIES ALONG 34N34W...28N45W 23N60W. BROKEN LOW TO MID
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH LITTLE THERMAL CONTRAST NOTED.
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST
REGION N OF 15N. THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA
INTO THE W-CENTRAL ATLC WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG
50/51W. ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 19N31W EXTENDS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE OCEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS INLAND OVER NW
AFRICA. FAIRLY DRY MID TO UPPER AIR IS ALSO SEEN BETWEEN
60W-25W. AN UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS CENTERED JUST N OF THE REGION WITH
WINDS OF 90 TO 110KT .

$$
GR






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