[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 222336
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 4N20W 1N30W 1S50W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-24W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 2N W OF 36W SPREADING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF FAR NE BRAZIL...FRENCH GUIANA...AND SURINAME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING LIES ACROSS THE GULF REGION...WITH A
1023 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AND
THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE STRETCHING SE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE MOVING S ALONG A LINE
FROM SRN GEORGIA TO MOBILE ALABAMA THEN NW INTO NE TEXAS...AND
THE STRONGEST SWD PUSH OCCURS FROM FLORIDA EWD INTO THE ATLC
WHERE THE UPPER FLOW IS MORE TROUGH-LIKE. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
CENTERED FROM NE MEXICO NWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET ROUNDING THE AXIS GENERALLY N OF THE
AREA...ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING
ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND TEXAS. OTHERWISE THE AREA IS UNDER A
SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER. THE ONE EXCEPTION
IS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHICH IS
CAUSING AN E/W ORIENTED BAND OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
23N-26N BETWEEN 85W-95W.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NE
GULF TONIGHT THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND INCREASINGLY
DIFFUSE FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO NEW ORLEANS FRI AFTERNOON. A
SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST SAT
AFTERNOON PRECEDED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS N OF 27N ALONG THE
GULF COAST...BUT IT TOO WILL STALL OVER THE NRN GULF WATERS LATE
SUN.

CARIBBEAN...

HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC IS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES...EXCEPT STRONGER OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS DOMINATED BY AN E/W
MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG 17N WITH ASSOCIATED
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE
AXIS OF STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE ACTUALLY EXTENDS ALONG A LINE FROM
COSTA RICA/PANAMA EWD INTO VENEZUELA THEN NE ACROSS TRINIDAD
INTO THE SRN ATLC. THIS IS DUE TO A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
NRN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N68W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NE INTO THE
ATLC WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. A FEW TRADE SHOWERS HAVE
FORMED BENEATH THE TRADE INVERSION...WITH A SOME MOVING INTO THE
HIGHLANDS FROM SRN NICARAGUA TO PANAMA.

WEST ATLANTIC...

BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IS BRUSHING OVER THE W ATLC
WATERS...ANCHORED BY A LARGE POLAR VORTEX WAY NORTH OVER THE
GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
ALONG 31N66W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND APPEARS TO BE THE
IMPETUS FOR A PATCH OF TRAILING SUBSIDING AIR MOVING E OF
FLORIDA TO ABOUT 65W. THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 23N HAS BEEN
IMPEDED A BIT BY A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH LIES FROM 31N60W TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...DEFINED MERELY BE A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT AND THIN
CLOUD LINE.

THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE SE U.S. COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE SW ATLC WATERS TONIGHT AND SWEEP SE THROUGH SAT...EVENTUALLY
STALLING JUST N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AS THE MORE ENERGETIC
PART CONTINUES E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE FRONT WILL BE MAINLY
DRY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP BY SAT FARTHER OUT OVER THE ATLC WATERS.

EAST ATLANTIC...

AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE E ATLC WATERS WITH
A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N22W
AND THE RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 20N50W. THE MAIN MID-LATITUDE FLOW
TRANSITIONS FROM BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE W ATLC TO A BROAD
RIDGE ROUGHLY ALONG 15W ALMOST NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA. A
NEARLY CUT-OFF MID/UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL
WATERS W OF THE CAPE VERDES ALONG 33W AND LOOKS TO BE SECLUDED
FROM THE MAIN FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRADES A BIT TO THE W. THIS FEATURE IS ONLY SPREADING
SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAPE VERDES TO THE COAST OF
SENEGAL AND MAURITANIA.

$$
BERG






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