[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030504
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N10W 5N19W 3N34W 2N45W EQ51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE FROM 5N24W TO 6N32W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N E OF 21W TO ACROSS THE
PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC
IS GIVING THE GULF OF MEXICO WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THE DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE W
ATLC CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE GULF ACROSS S
FLORIDA ALONG 23N90W INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE. TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE GULF
GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERING
MUCH OF THE GULF. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE LOUISIANA/
TEXAS COAST AND IN THE STRAITS FLORIDA E OF 82W. THE SOUTHERN
SECTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT NORTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE PORTION OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 15N84W TO
ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N77W COVERING THE AREA W OF 80W. BROAD UPPER
HIGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN EASTERLY UPPER FLOW. DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING FROM
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...THUS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE. SOME
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE USHERED IN ON STRONG
TRADE WINDS THAT CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE REGION. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC DRAPING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION ACROSS BERMUDA TO OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR
27N78W CROSSING S FLORIDA AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150/180 NM W OF
THE FRONT. UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED NEAR
24N61W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 55W. NARROW DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N33W SW TO THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N48W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N33W SW TO 26N42W. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS IS FIRMLY IN
PLACE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC...THUS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

$$
WALLACE


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