[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041124
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 1N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 3N15W
4N30W 2N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 46W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90NM N AND 60NM S OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 21W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS IN THE NW
GULF THIS MORNING...N OF 25N AND W OF 90W. THIS IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW MOVING
THROUGH NRN MEXICO AND THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE GULF FROM ITS ORIGIN JUST S OF EL SALVADOR. FURTHER...THE
SFC SUPPORT IS DRIVEN BY THE 1012 MB LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...THAT HAS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E THROUGH THE
MIDDLE GULF AND INTO NE FLORIDA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NE OF
THE AREA AND DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NW GULF
THROUGH TONIGHT. 15-20 KT SE TO S FLOW EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT/LOW TODAY WHILE SIMILAR W TO NW WINDS EXPECTED THE FRONT.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT DIMINISH TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OFF THE TX COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH JUST S OF EL SALVADOR EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NW CARIBBEAN. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS WSW FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO PANAMA. VERY DRY
AIR...RESULTING IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE BASIN. ONLY
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE BEING CARRIED BY THE TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
MANY OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND THEIR ADJACENT WATERS TONIGHT.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
HIGH PRES OVER ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG E
TRADE WINDS THROUGH SUN WITH GALE CONDITIONS JUST OFF OF THE
COLOMBIAN COAST THROUGH FRI MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NE THROUGH THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS OFF OF
FLORIDA IS ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER THE GULF. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE FAR NW ATLC ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N51W
AND CONTINUES WWD TO 28N63W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THEN
EXTENDS W TO 30N78W. COASTAL FRONT IS TAKING ITS PLACE OFF THE
SE US COAST. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS N OF 22N ALONG
67W...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
W-CENTRAL ATLC...EXTENDING NE FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TOWARDS
THE AZORES. AN UPPER LOW IS NEAR 22N40W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THIS LOW TO NEAR 12N47W. A SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE
UPPER LOW IS ANALYZED FROM 24N44W TO 18N45W. BROAD RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. THIS RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL
MOISTURE N AND E ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...N OF 10N
AND E OF 40W. A 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
MADEIRA ISLANDS EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC.

$$
WILLIS


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