[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091115
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 3N7W 4N16W 2N27W 4N45W 3N52W. SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 6N BETWEEN 14W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E US AND THE GULF MOVING
INTO THE NW ATLC RESULTING IN MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY CLEARING THE
GULF THIS MORNING EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS EXTREME S
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ALONG 25N81W TO 23N85W WHERE IT IS
BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W TO NW
GUATEMALA. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS S OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA
KEYS ALONG 24N88W TO MEXICO NEAR 20N97W INCLUDING THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD BANK...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ARE CLEARING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...LOW DEW POINTS AND MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH
SURFACE WINDS. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE US
WITH A 1029 MB HIGH ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. MODERATE/STRONG
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TUE
NIGHT BECOMING WEAKER AND MORE EASTERLY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
GRADUALLY MOVES E ACROSS THE SE US WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
NOT MOVING INTO THE GULF UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NE TO OVER W
CUBA COVERING THE REGION W OF 75W. UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE SW ATLC COVERING THE NE
CARIBBEAN N OF 14N E OF 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE CARIBBEAN. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS HAVE
WEAKEN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC CONTINUES TO SHIFT E
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE W ATLC AND FAR SE GULF OF
MEXICO. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF MOVES FURTHER INTO
THE W ATLC AND W CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE US AND GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER
THE FAR W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH
32N73W ACROSS EXTREME S FLORIDA NEAR 25N81W INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
60/75 NM OF LINE FROM S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR
25N80W TO BEYOND 32N72W. NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS IN THE W ATLC
EXTENDING FROM ACROSS W CUBA TO BEYOND 32N65W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR ARE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 60W
CLOUD FREE. AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
FROM 24N45W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 22N60W W INTO THE SW ATLC
TO NEAR 23N70W CLIPPING THE NE CARIBBEAN AND THE W TROPICAL
ATLC. WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 26N54W TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 19N64W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
18N50W TO 26N54W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 24N E
OF 35W WITH NO SURFACE REFLECTION. A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE TROPICS ANCHORED BY AN UPPER
HIGH NEAR 3N46W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO 23N40W
COVERING THE AREA S OF 24N E OF 45W TO OVER AFRICA. JET STREAM
WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT EXTENDS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THIS
UPPER RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
ATLC E OF THE FRONT IN THE FAR W ATLC WITH AN ADDITIONAL
WEAKNESS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE. A 1029 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 33N45W.

$$
WALLACE





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