[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160528
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N24W 3N38W ACROSS THE EQUATOR
NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 16W-32W AND FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 7W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FOR THE PAST
FEW NIGHTS HAS FINALLY MOVED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING
FROM A WEAK 1018 MB LOW OVER S MISSISSIPPI ALONG 26N94W TO THE W
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR 20N97W RETURNING N AS A
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS. THIS IS BRINGING STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS W OF
THE FRONT AND GALE FORCE WINDS S OF 25N W OF THE FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF
THE FRONT AS WELL. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS INLAND EXTENDING FROM THE NEW ENGLAND ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE DESERT SW. THE GULF IS ACTUALLY
DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH
LOCATED OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS IN THE W ATLC. TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS
MEXICO AND TEXAS FEEDING THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE W GULF. A 20 TO 30 DEG TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT GRADIENT CONTINUES TO DELINEATE THE FRONT BOUNDARY AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N81W TO THE E
COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM OVER CUBA TO 29N BETWEEN 79W-83W. THE BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC STILL EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR SE US AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO E OF 87W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS COVERS THE
W CARIBBEAN N OF 12N. A SURGE OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY
AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION SUPPRESSING ANY SHOWERS.
STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH SURFACE
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE ATLC WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
OFF THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
CARIBBEAN IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS
NEAR 25N78W AND COVERS THE ATLC W OF 60W. ALTHOUGH DRY AIR AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVER THE AREA...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N81W TO THE E COAST OF
FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W FROM 24N-29N W OF 79W. CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS
IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 22N54W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DIPPING
SW OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N53W TO 27N49W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 43W-52W. E/W
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE ATLC WITH A 1029 MB HIGH
ANCHORED OVER BERMUDA AND A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 32N42W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC ANCHORED DEEP IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC. THE AFRICAN DUST PLUM
IS DISPERSING AS IT CONTINUES TO SPREAD W OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC
E OF 50W.

$$
WALLACE




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