[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 18 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 5N23W 3N30W 2N40W EQ50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN
33W-43W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S AMERICA
FROM 2S-1N BETWEEN 47W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1032 MB HIGH IS INLAND OVER N MEXICO NEAR 28N101W PRODUCING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO.  A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE W GULF OF MEXICO THEN BENDS
SHARPLY S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 27N80W 26N90W 25N95W
18N94W.  15-20 KT NLY WINDS ARE N OF FRONT.  OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N AND W OF THE FRONT.  IN CONTRAST...
10-15 KT ELY WINDS ARE S AND E OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70'S...20-30 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE COLD AIR MASS.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH UPPER WINDS PRIMARILY FROM THE W.  A BAND OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUD IS OVER N MEXICO AND THE N GULF
N OF 27N.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT THE SURFACE FRONT TO STAY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND WEAKEN.  UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW...IN THE FORM OF A
150 KT JET STREAM ALONG 40N...IS TOO FAR N TO EFFECT THE GULF OF
MEXICO FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA ESPECIALLY OVER PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA... JAMAICA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  30KT WINDS
ARE ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA.  ALOFT...EXTENSIVE DRY AIR IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVER
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.  CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 90W HAS DRY CYCLONIC
AIR ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER S MEXICO NEAR 15N94W.
THE CARIBBEAN HAS DRY SWLY FLOW DUE TO A RIDGE OVER S AMERICA.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1021 MB LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST NEAR 30N79W
MOVING RAPIDLY NE.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO S
FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W.  OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE N OF THE FRONT.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 32N45W 26N60W 25N70W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  FURTHER S ...A 1015 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 22N50W...NEARLY STATIONARY.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 29N47W 22N50W 17N50W.  LOW TO MID CLOUDINESS
WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 44W-54W.  E OF
35W A DENSE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS EVIDENT.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W.  A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS FURTHER E NEAR 22N50W.  ANOTHER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS FURTHER E NEAR 26N22W.  WLY FLOW COVERS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 15N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AT 60W TO AFRICA.

$$
FORMOSA




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