[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191123
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN THROUGH
4N15W 3N30W EQ48W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 5W-10W. SCATTERED MODERATE
IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUES TO ADVECT SIGNIFICANT MID TO UPPER
MOISTURE EWD FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF
WATERS N OF 26N...AROUND THE DOMINATING UPPER RIDGE. DRY AIR
WITH SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AT THE
SFC...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE OVER THE
AREA. QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0000 UTC AND CONTINUED LOW PRESSURE
READINGS AT BUOY 42002 LED TO THE DECISION TO PUT A WEAK 1021 MB
SFC LOW NEAR 24N95W. AS OF 0900 UTC A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
NE THEN E FROM THE LOW THROUGH 27N94W 28N86W...AND S OF THE LOW
THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. WEAK COLD FRONT IS SWINGING
THROUGH SE FLORIDA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW NEAR
CAPE HATTERAS. RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT HAS MADE
IT VERY DIFFICULT TO KEEP THE FRONTS CONNECTED. HAVE OPTED TO
FRACTURE THE ONCE CONTINUOUS FRONT BUT OVERALL WAS NOT THE
CLEAREST SIGNAL EITHER WAY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
LIGHT RAIN STILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY W OF 87W. WINDS
AND SEAS HAVE RELAXED STEADILY OVER THE LAST 24 TO 48
HOURS...EXCEPT OFF THE TEXAS AND MEXICO COAST WHERE LINGERING
FRONTAL TROUGH INTERACTS WITH CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE. THIS IS
PRODUCING 15-25 KT N TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE WIND WAVES.
HIGHEST WINDS/WAVES TO PERSIST NRN GULF WATERS N OF 26N AND W OF
88W THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA MOVES E WHILE
INTERACTING WITH LINGERING FRONTAL TROUGH. SEE MIAOFFNT4 FOR
FORECAST DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGING AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. DEEP CONVECTION THEREBY REMAINS ABSENT.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW AT THE SFC. THE
SFC WIND MAXIMA REMAINS NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST AROUND 30 KT.
TRADES CONTINUE TO ADVECT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS WWD ACROSS THE BASIN. THE ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES TO BANK LOW CLOUDS/MOISTURE UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL
AMERICAN TERRAIN. LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED THROUGH SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE SW N ATLC. RIDGE IS
ADVECTING MOISTURE THROUGH THE SE U.S. AND INTO THE W ATLC N OF
25N. 1012 MB SFC LOW JUST OFFSHORE CAPE HATTERAS IS EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES WELL NE OF THE AREA. ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N75W AND CONTINUES SW
TO THE SE FLORIDA COAST. FRONT WILL RACE QUICKLY E THROUGH THE
WRN ATLC THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT/WINDS WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA. UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING
E THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 50W. ASSOCIATED
DYING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N40W AND CONTINUES
SW TO NEAR 27N53W. FRONT HAS SLOWED ITS PROGRESSION DUE TO THE
1014 MB SFC LOW NEAR 24N50W. RELATED SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-50W. GFS INDICATES THE SFC
LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 1008 MB BY TONIGHT WHILE MOVING NE...THEN GET
ABSORBED INTO THE POWERFUL...COMPLEX LOW SE OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY EARLY SUNDAY. PRONOUNCED UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E
ATLC NEAR 27N23W. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS N
OF 25N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 25W. SFC PATTERN OVER THE E ATLC
DOMINATED BY MODERATE E TO NE WINDS SW OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
FROM SPAIN. WSW JET OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC CONTINUES TO ADVECT
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS FROM NE SOUTH AMERICA TO THE
AFRICAN COAST.

$$
WILLIS




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