[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 212309
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 4N21W 3N39W 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE ITCZ AXIS TO JUST S
OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 31W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM A 1013 MB LOW OVER W
ALABAMA ACROSS THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI INTO THE GULF TO NEAR
28N92W WHERE IT PULLS UP STATIONARY INTO MEXICO S OF TAMPICO
THEN CONTINUING N ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS. THE LOW AND FRONT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH CURRENTLY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES SW
TO OVER NW MEXICO AND COVERING THE NW GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS ACROSS THE FAR SE US GIVING PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND
FURTHER NORTH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE MAINLY INLAND AND OVER THE NW
GULF N OF 26N TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND TO THE COAST OF
TEXAS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE
W OF PANAMA CITY. REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS DOMINATED
BY AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS CUBA AND
OVER THE W ATLC. DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
GULF S OF 26N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W
ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N77W INTO THE W ATLC. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. DRY AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF W
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN OVER CUBA NEAR
21N77W TO BEYOND 32N76W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 60W. DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N45W SW ALONG 25N52W TO 23N62W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES TO NEAR 24N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
25N. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR
20N53W. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N27W WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 11N31W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
N/S ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA.

$$
WALLACE




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