[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221135
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N25W 2N40W 3N51W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ
FROM 14W-21W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
2S-2N BETWEEN 32W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM A 1014 MB SFC LOW
OVER SW GEORGIA ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
INTO THE GULF TO NEAR 29N90W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THEN
CONTINUES ALONG 25N95W INTO MAINLAND MEXICO CROSSING SOUTH OF
TAMPICO AND CONTINUING N ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAIN STATES SW TO OVER NW MEXICO SUPPORTS THE LOW AND THE
FRONT. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED BY STRONG SWLY
WINDS FROM THE EPAC ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN
GULF WATERS INTO THE SE U.S.. A WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXTEND FROM THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF
NE ACROSS THE SE U.S. REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS
CUBA AND OVER THE W ATLC. DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE GULF SE OF A LINE FROM TAMPICO TO TAMPA BAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. A
SFC HIGH IS BUILDING OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF AND WILL PRODUCE
MODERATE TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE N AND W GULF
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA AND
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE AREA. THIS CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRES LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THE
TRADES ARE ADVECTING TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS WWD. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES CONTINUE THROUGH
WED. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
LOCATED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS IS APPROACHING DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND PUERTO RICO. MORE DETAILS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W. DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N40W THEN CONTINUES SW ALONG 23N50W TO
22N62W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO NEAR 22N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
27N. A NARROW BAND OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS IS RELATED TO THE FRONT
SOUTH OF 27N. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT COVERING THE W ATLC. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING
SOUTH WEST OF 60W AND WILL REACH FIRST HISPANIOLA AND AFTERWARD
PUERTO RICO DURING THE MORNING HOURS GENERATING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST. THE SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THIS BAND OF
SHOWERS. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER E ATLC NEAR 25N22W WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 12N30W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG
THE W COAST OF AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE E
ATLC.

$$
GR




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