[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011049
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 13N31W TO 4N35W MOVING SLOWLY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK INVERTED-V PATTERN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ITCZ AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. IT IS
GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA AND
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TODAY AND OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MON.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N25W 8N32W 7N45W 7N58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE
MENTIONED ABOVE FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 29W-37W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70-90 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 25W
TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND N OF AXIS
BETWEEN 42W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N92W WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THESE TWO
UPPER FEATURES ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA EXTENDING FROM
THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE W ATLC. A SFC
TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SE GULF.
THIS TROUGH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWER/TSTMS ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. SOME SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER
THE AREA...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. A WEAK 1018 MB SFC HIGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N87W. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY N INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
WHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF. DOPPLER
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE NW CORNER
OF THE GULF MOVING INLAND OVER TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN. AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. DIFFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS SUPPORTING THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF
PANAMA/COSTA RICA NEAR 10N82 AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND NICARAGUA. THIS AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE
COUPLED WITH THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC IS GIVING
THE CARIBBEAN MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CLIPPING THE AREA NEAR 31N76W. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC W OF 70W. A
COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE W ATLC...AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH LOCATED OVER FLORIDA. A
DIFFLUENCE PATTERN ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING THIS CONVECTION. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS
THE W-CENTRAL ATLC MOSTLY N OF 20N FROM 40W-70W WITH A PORTION
DIPPING S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. A SERIES OF SMALL UPPER LOWS ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW WITH ONE LOCATED IN THE REGION
NEAR 28N59W WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. A WEAK 1022 SFC LOW IS
ANALYZED ON THE 06Z SURFACE MAP NEAR 27N60W. A SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS IS SEEN IN THE NIGHT CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY RELATED TO
THIS WEAK LOW...THAT HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING MAINLY EWD TO
29N52W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC W OF
70W. PATCHES OF LOW/MID CLOUDS AND MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE CALLED THE BERMUDAS-AZORES
HIGH...A SEMI-PERMANENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SITS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC DURING THE SUMMER TIME. HURRICANES THAT FORM IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TEND TO CIRCLE THIS HIGH.

$$
GR




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