[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021038
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED ALONG 39W/40W IS
RELOCATED FARTHER E ALONG 35W BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY THAT
SHOWS AN INCREASE OF CONVECTION WITH SOME CYCLONIC TURNING NEAR
8N35W. FURTHER ADJUSTMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE MORNING VIS
IMAGERY COMES IN. ACCORDING TO THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM...THIS IS
A VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM. SOME OF THE COMPUTER MODELS DEVELOP A
SFC LOW ALONG THIS TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-10N.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 87W S OF 21N MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT. IT IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. A DIFFLUENT
PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS WAVE
IS FORECAST TO REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TODAY.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 8N25W 9N32W 6N45W 6N58W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-15N E OF 16W TO THE
COAST OF AFRICA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM N OF AXIS
BETWEEN 50W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF NEAR 28N85W
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NWD THE W GULF AND THE COAST OF TEXAS
WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH OVER BELIZE COVERS
THE FAR SE GULF AND CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK 1018 MB SFC HIGH LOCATED NEAR 28N88W DOMINATES THE REGION.
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SURFACE WINDS ARE MOSTLY 5 TO 10 KT OVER THE EASTERN GULF
E OF 90W...AND 10-15 KT FROM THE SE OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE AFFECTING THE SE OF U.S.. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR
29N97W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AND IS
CENTERED OVER BELIZE. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW
REMAINS ALONG THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER NEAR 9N82W AND IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE COUPLED WITH THE
STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE E CARIBBEAN IS
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC.
THE TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE SEEN OVER THE AREA. AN UPPER
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NE VENEZUELA ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW JUST N OF THE REGION
THROUGH 31N72W TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS
SYSTEM COMBINED WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 280 NM AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W-CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 28N58W WITH A TROUGH DIPPING S INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. A
NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IS E OF THE
LOW/TROUGH ALONG 56W/57W FROM 21N-30N. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FORECAST AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE BERMUDAS-AZORES HIGH IS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 70W. PATCHES OF LOW/MID
CLOUDS AND MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE FOUND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THIS SYSTEM. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER
PRES OVER AFRICA IS PRODUCING NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE
CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
GR






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