[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080617
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A BROAD TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 15N33W TO 10N36W 5N37W
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE ENVELOPE
OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING AND IS CAUSING A LARGE
POLEWARD PERTURBATION IN THE ITCZ. DESPITE ITS LARGE
SIZE...SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL AND
DISORGANIZED.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND NE VENEZUELA.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN
TOMORROW CROSSING MAINLY SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 79W MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. THIS WAVE...COUPLE WITH AN UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR JAMAICA IS
GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER E CUBA... HAITI AND
JAMAICA AS WELL AS OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA.  THIS WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND THEN WESTERN CUBA TOMORROW.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N20W 9N36W 6N45W 6N50W 8N60W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN
10W-25W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN
37W-42W...AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 44W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N90W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.  A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG 31N82W
26N83W.  MOST CONVECTION HAS NOW DISSIPATED OVER INLAND
FLORIDA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER S MEXICO NEAR 19N99W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF 25N AND W OF
92W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER
S MEXICO.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR
30N82W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 90W.  LIKEWISE SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER FLORIDA AND THE E
GULF.  EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO MERGE WITH A WESTWARD
EXPANDING ATLANTIC RIDGE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE ALONG 28N.  CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY OVER
LOUISIANA AND THE N GULF WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  SEE ABOVE.  A
1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
72W-76W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 76W-84W.  MODERATE TO STRONG
TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED E OF 80W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR JAMAICA AT 18N78W.  CYCLONIC
FLOW IS N OF 14N BETWEEN 73W-83W.  ELSEWHERE...THE SRN CARIBBEAN
HAS WLY FLOW S OF 13N.  EXPECT CONVECTION WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION S OF 13N
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 79W-81W.  ELSEWHERE..A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 30N45W TO THE
BAHAMAS AT 27N77W.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED FROM 20N-30N
BETWEEN 20W-70W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 60W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 20N50W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER E AT
25N40W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 18N24W.

$$
FORMOSA


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