[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101023
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL
DEFINED MID LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90
NM OF THE WAVE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF
10N. ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
S OF 14N FROM OVER TOBAGO TO JUST E OF THE ABC ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS BENEATH A BROAD E/W RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE FAR
S CARIBBEAN THUS MASKING ITS IDENTITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 68W-75W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W/90W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
IS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WITH ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY/CONVECTION NOT IN THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 9N24W 6N41W 4N54W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 11N49W
TO 7N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90/120 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 18W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA
AND FROM 24W-31W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 32W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES DIPPING S
INTO THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER
N/CENTRAL MEXICO WITH ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER MEXICO WITH ONLY WIDELY ISOLATED
SHOWERS N OF 26N FROM 86W-94W. AN UPPER HIGH IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION COVERS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N. AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA TO OVER THE E GULF
E OF 91W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC
TO OVER THE GULF E OF 90W. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THE FAR E
GULF S OF 28N E OF 86W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONCE AGAIN...THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION IS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND S CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA WITH A
PERSISTENT 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA ARE
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN WHILE A BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH
AMERICA INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 9N76W TO ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 17N/18N. DRY STABLE UPPER AIR
COVERS THE AREA N OF 17N. THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 16N BETWEEN 75W-86W INCLUDING JAMAICA AND CUBA. MODERATE/
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ELONGATED UPPER HIGH IS IN THE W ATLC ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE
N BAHAMA ISLANDS COVERING THE E GULF AS WELL AS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE W ATLC ALONG 28N70W TO 34N55W PRODUCING
SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY N OF THE AREA. THE REMAINDER
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY BENIGN UPPER
TROUGH-RIDGE- TROUGH WITH DRY STABLE AIR AND A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM A 1032 MB HIGH OVER THE E OF THE AZORES THROUGH
32N40W TO A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 29N63W ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE REGION
OF THE ATLC WITH SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS AND CUBA INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO W OF 78W.

$$
WALLACE



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net