[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110530
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT. SHALLOW
MID LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
JUST TO THE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
10N-17N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 8N50W
10N53W 8N57W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE
IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE MASKING ANY SATELLITE SIGNATURE. NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE
REMAINS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MASKING ANY
SATELLITE SIGNATURE. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 10N27W 7N43W 6N59W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN
30W-36W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
AXIS W OF 40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR
TAMPA EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER MEXICO IS INDUCING A NARROW WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE
TEXAS/MEXICO COAST. SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS EXTENDING FROM THE W
ATLC TO OVER THE GULF E OF 92W. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FAR SE GULF S OF 24N FROM 83W-87W...REMNANTS OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS GENERATED OVER CUBA MOVING NW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONCE AGAIN...THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
THE ITCZ EXTENDING ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...TROPICAL
WAVE...AND A MID LEVEL LOW OVER NICARAGUA. THIS COMBINATION IS
PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION S OF A LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W 13N81W 19N84W
20N88W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER
THE N CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WHILE A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
COLOMBIA TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION AND
A THIRD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE FAR
E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
DRY STABLE UPPER AIR COVERS THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS GENERATED OVER HAITI AND CUBA HAVE MOVED
WSW AND ARE DISSIPATING. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ELONGATED UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
INTO THE W ATLC W OF 70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
IS DOMINATED BY BENIGN UPPER TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH WITH DRY STABLE
AIR AND A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1031 MB HIGH OVER THE E
OF THE AZORES THROUGH A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 34N40W CONTINUING SW
ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. FAIR WEATHER
CLOUDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE REGION OF THE ATLC WITH SOME POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN
WEST PALM BEACH AND JACKSONVILLE.

$$
WALLACE


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