[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N86W. A TROUGH EXISTS FROM 24N86W IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE L0W PRESSURE CENTER...
TO 15N86W IN HONDURAS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE WATER FROM HONDURAS TO WESTERN CUBA BETWEEN 82W AND
THE MEXICO/BELIZE COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHER SHOWERS
ARE IN THE WATER FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W...NORTHWEST
OF JAMAICA AND SOUTH OF CUBA. THIS LOW CENTER/TROUGH FEATURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS
AND TO PRODUCE RAIN FOR WESTERN CUBA AND FLORIDA. STAY TUNED.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W SOUTH OF 9N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS WEAK AND ANY RELATED
PRECIPITATION IS PART OF THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...
FROM 7N12W AT THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE...TO 6N20W 5N30W 5N38W
5N40W 2N51W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 8W AND 13W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN
20W AND 25W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 32W AND 50W...AND
FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS WEST OF 90W. THE TROUGH STARTS
FROM A SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 29N92W AND GOES TO 25N93W AND 19N96W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO LEADS TO A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
FLORIDA TO CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATIONS ARE UNDER THE RIDGE EAST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW STARTS IN FLORIDA AND MAKES ITS
WAY FROM FLORIDA TO THE BAHAMAS TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...TO HISPANIOLA AND CUBA...AND ALSO PRETTY MUCH ACROSS
THE WHOLE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ONLY CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE AREA IS
THE PRESENCE OF THE 21N61W SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH   ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW BASED ON THE
RELATION OF THE FLORIDA/CUBA RIDGE AND THE DEEP LAYER 32N51W
20N61W TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 21N
BETWEEN 60W AND 80W...INCLUDING AROUND AND ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
ALL THOSE OTHER ISLANDS BETWEEN 60W AND 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 27N56W TO 20N61W.
THIS FEATURE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE
SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 27N55W TO 21N63W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N45W 27N51W
22N54W 20N61W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 10N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N53W 20N63WW SURFACE TROUGH. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH GOES FROM
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N23W TO 22N30W TO 18N37W.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA
EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH.

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net