[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011056
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 21.4N 85.6W. A TROUGH EXISTS FROM
25N85W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE L0W PRESSURE
CENTER...TO 16N89W FROM BELIZE INTO GUATEMALA. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATER NORTHEAST OF 19N80W
21N83W...SOME OF IT REACHING CUBA BUT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
STILL IS OVER THE WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SIMILAR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF CUBA...AND
EVEN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A FEW CLUSTERS ALSO...SOUTH
OF 19N WEST OF 82W. THIS LOW CENTER/TROUGH FEATURE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS AND TO PRODUCE
RAIN FOR WESTERN CUBA AND FLORIDA. STAY TUNED.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W SOUTH OF 9N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS WEAK AND ANY RELATED
PRECIPITATION IS PART OF THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...
FROM 7N10W AT THE COAST OF LIBERIA...TO 6N20W 5N30W 5N39W
5N41W 5N55W THROUGH NORTHERN FRENCH GUIANA TO ITS BORDER WITH
SURINAME.

IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 8W AND 13W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 6N
BETWEEN 20W AND 25W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 32W AND
50W...AND FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS WEST OF 90W. THE TROUGH STARTS
FROM A SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 29N92W AND GOES TO 25N93W AND 19N96W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO LEADS TO A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
FLORIDA TO CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE UNDER THE RIDGE EAST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW STARTS IN FLORIDA AND MAKES ITS
WAY FROM FLORIDA TO THE BAHAMAS TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...TO HISPANIOLA AND CUBA...AND ALSO PRETTY MUCH ACROSS
THE WHOLE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH IS 20N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW BASED
ON THE RELATION OF THE FLORIDA/CUBA RIDGE AND THE DEEP LAYER
32N51W 20N61W TROUGH. THIS PRECIPITATION IS FROM 15N TO 21N
BETWEEN 60W AND 80W...INCLUDING AROUND AND ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND ALL
THE OTHER ISLANDS BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. A WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 14N79W APPEARS TO BE ON
THE WAY TO BECOME EVEN MORE DISORGANIZED AS IT MOVES MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 27N56W TO 20N61W.
THIS FEATURE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N48W TO 20N62W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N50W
25N53W 20N60W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 10N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 31N48W 20N62W SURFACE TROUGH. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH GOES FROM
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N23W TO 22N30W TO 18N37W.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA
EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH.

$$
MT




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