[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A BROAD 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N86W. RADAR...LIGHTNING AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF S OF 28N E OF 87W. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION
COULD BRING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
STATUS.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO
CHECK THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
WESTERN CUBA AND WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W SOUTH OF 9N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE. HAVE PLACED THE WAVE JUST TO THE E OF THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTION...WITH UPPER ELY FLOW OVER THE REGION S OF AN
UPPER ANTICYCLONE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 7N AND
W OF THE AXIS TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST...ISOLATED MODERATE IS
WITHIN 120NM E OF THE AXIS.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N20W 4N30W 5N44W 5N52W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 13W-18W...AND WITHIN 120NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
27W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MAIN WEATHER IN THE GULF IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPECIAL
FEATURE AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THIS FEATURE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A
SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING S FROM LOUISIANA AND
THROUGH THE WRN GULF. WV IMAGERY SHOWS DISTINCT UPPER
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND A RIDGE EXTENDING N THROUGH
THE WRN ATLC. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
GULF E OF 90W. ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY POPPED UP JUST OFF
THE LOUISIANA COAST JUST TO THE E OF THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW.
OUTSIDE OF THIS ACTIVITY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS GENERALLY W OF 90W
WITH ONLY PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS EVIDENT. THE SPECIAL FEATURE IS
INTERACTING WITH AN ATLC SFC RIDGE TO PRODUCE 20-25 KT E/SE
WINDS AND 7-10 FT SEAS IN THE SE GULF. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ARE
ANTICIPATED IN THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS S OF 28N...AND ALSO IN
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURE.  THE CONSENSUS IS TO
BRING THE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE WRN ATLC OR NEAR THE SE U.S. COAST TOMORROW NIGHT AND
WED.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SFC TROUGH TRAILS SSW FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURE NEAR THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS...ALONG WITH AN
UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE NW CARIB AND WRN
CUBA...N OF 16N BETWEEN 81W-86W. ANOTHER PATCH OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS BOTH S AND N OF JAMAICA.
LIGHTNING AND SATELLITE DATA DEPICT SCATTERED TSTMS OF 13N
BETWEEN 74W-78W. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED PRIMARILY WITH
LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE BETWEEN MODERATE TRADES IN THE ERN
CARIBBEAN WITH MORE OF A SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE.
A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND REGIME IS EVIDENT E OF 75W WITH ONLY
MINOR PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT. HOWEVER...THE
COMBINATION OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT (BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER HIGH AND A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC) AND
DAYTIME HEATING IS ALLOWING CONVECTION TO FLARE UP AGAIN OVER
PUERTO RICO AS WELL. UPPER MOISTURE OVER THIS ACTIVITY AND OVER
CONVECTION ALONG AN OLD ATLC FRONTAL TROUGH IS SPREADING S INTO
THE ERN CARIB E OF 68W. A TRAILING TROUGH FROM THE SPECIAL
FEATURE WILL AFFECT THE NW CARIB THROUGH SAT WHILE MORE TYPICAL
TRADES ANTICIPATED ERN PORTION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB HIGH JUST NW OF BERMUDA IS AFFECTING THE WRN ATLC SFC
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS INTERACTS WITH THE SPECIAL
FEATURE IT WILL ALLOW S/SE WINDS AND WIND WAVES TO INCREASE
STEADILY THROUGH SAT...SEE HIGH SEAS AND COASTAL WATER FORECASTS
FOR MORE INFO. EXTENSIVE UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING INTO THE
WRN ATLC AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC...ALONG 57W N OF 13N.  ASSOCIATED 1013
MB SFC LOW NEAR 30W49W HAS A TRAILING TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO
24N59W. THIS ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 300NM SE OF THE SFC
TROUGH. THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A 1027 MB SFC HIGH BETWEEN THE
AZORES AND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS IS AFFECTING THE REMAINDER OF THE
E ATLC DISCUSSION AREA...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER E OF 40W.

$$
WILLIS




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