[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020616
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUN 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM BARRY CENTER AT 02/0600 UTC IS 25.0 84.6W
OR ABOUT 208 NM/385 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA AND
ABOUT 159 NM/295 KM WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA...MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEAST 8 KT...ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
997 MB...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND/OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 81 NM/150 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CENTER. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP
TO 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING
AREA NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER OF BARRY MAKES
LANDFALL. BARRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
AND NORTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN SECTIONS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 30 TO 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N81W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
TO 23N/24N ALONG 80W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO ARE COVER THE AREA FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE BAHAMAS FROM
25N TO 27N BETWEEN 77W AND 82W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF
28N83.5W MOVING NORTHWARD.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A POORLY-DEFINED ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W
SOUTH OF 7N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA OF THIS WAVE FROM THE WEST. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N23W TO 17N30W TO 16N34W.
ALL POSSIBLY-RELATED PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...
FROM 10N14W AT THE GUINEA COAST TO 8N20W 6N34W 6N42W 6N45W
6N54W TO NORTHWESTERN SURINAME NEAR 6N57W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 41W AND 43W...AND FROM
6N TO 8N BETWEEN 45W AND 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 2N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN...4N10W 5N26W 6N40W...
AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N40W 5N52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM BARRY IS THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THIS AREA.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO THE WEST OF BARRY. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS
EVERYWHERE WEST OF 85W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA FROM 18N81W TO CUBA NEAR 22N80W AND BEYOND...INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE IN NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...POSSIBLY
AT THE TAIL END OF THE FLOW/DYNAMICS RELATED TO THE FIRST AREA
OF PRECIPITATION. EVERYTHING IS HAPPENING IN AN AREA OF SOME
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE
PROCESSES. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH REACHES 15N57W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ALSO
IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...WITH RESPECT TO
THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM THE RIDGE ON TOP OF
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL STORM BARRY...COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN ALSO NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 65W. A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 26N55W TO 15N57W. THIS IS THE
SAME TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN SUPPORTING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE
TROUGH THAT HAD REMAINED IN THE AREA FOR DAYS AND DAYS ON END
DURING THE LAST WEEK OR SO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 55W AND 80W. AN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM
A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 36N19W TO 27N30W TO 19N48W.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 28N19W TO 23N23W TO 17N30W
TO 16N34W.

$$
MT



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net