[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N10W 2N25W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT
45W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N EAST OF 16W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS JUST
W OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN FROM 2N TO THE COAST OF AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO
THE W ATLC. A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH CORE WINDS OF 70 KT LIES
SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH ALONG 23N AND GOES FROM 23N95W THROUGH THE
STRAIT OF FLORIDA/NW BAHAMAS TO BEYOND 27N70W. UPPER NW TO W
WINDS DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF. THE ATTENDANT BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS ENTERING NORTHERN FLORIDA AND WILL MOVE INTO THE NE
GULF LATE TONIGHT. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE SE U.S. SHOWS
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER N-CENTRAL FLORIDA
PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH A 1011 MB SFC LOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF
TALLAHASSEE NEAR 30N83W ON THE 21Z MAP. ANOTHER AREA OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS JUST NORTH OF LAKE OCKEECHOBEE. A WEAK 1017 MB
SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE GULF NEAR
28N96W. INFORMATION FROM NESDIS INDICATES THAT SMOKE IS STILL
COVERING THE N GULF FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF TEXAS SE THROUGH
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC INCLUDING ALL OF FLORIDA
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE NW GULF THROUGH MON NIGHT. FAIR WEATHER AND
LIGHT WINDS ARE FOUND NEAR THE HIGH.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WLY FLOW WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE
MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN UPPER
HIGH OVER NE VENEZUELA EXTENDING ALONG 10/12N. DIFFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE EPAC
ITCZ ARE ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO SEEN NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO. A SFC
TROUGH FROM THE ATLC ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH EASTERN CUBA
CROSSING BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. MOST OF THE
SHOWER/TSTMS ACTIVITY IS JUST E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AFFECTING E
CUBA...JAMAICA AND THE REGIONAL COASTAL WATERS. MODERATE TO
FRESH ELY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND A RIDGE THAT INVADES THE FAR E CARIBBEAN
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC.

ATLANTIC...
AS OF 21Z...THE REMNANTS OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA ARE NEAR
31.5N 70.6W. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE SE US
COAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED... AND IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES NEAR BERMUDA ON MONDAY.
THUS...THE POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NO LONGER EXISTS. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS
DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
TO BEYOND 32N42W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 23N BETWEEN 52W-72W. A 1014 MB SFC LOW IS
ANALYZED ON THE 18Z MAP NEAR 28N62W. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NEWD
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC
E OF 65W. DRY AIR COVERS MUCH OF THE ATLC ESPECIALLY E OF 60W
AND IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW A BROAD AREA OF AFRICA DUST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
REGION STRETCHING FROM THE ITCZ N TO 20N AND E OF 52W WITH THE
DENSEST PORTION OBSERVED S OF 13N...THUS LIMITING CONVECTION
WITHIN THE ITCZ.

$$
GR




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