[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT NOV 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. INVERTED
V CLOUD SIGNATURE IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A BROAD
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING
THE AREA FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 34W-38W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 19N52W TO 7N49W MOVING W NEAR 10
KT.  THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE IS OUTRUNNING THE SOUTHERN END
THUS PRODUCING THE TILTED AXIS.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 46W-49W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 7N20W 8N30W 11N36W 9N43W
12N50W 9N60W.  A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TI ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN
11W-14W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN
16W-20W...AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 37W-44W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA NEAR 36N99W IS PRODUCING
10-15 KT NELY SURFACE FLOW WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...WLY ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF LIMITING CONVECTIVE.
EXPECT A SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE TO THE NW GULF WITHIN 24 HOURS AND
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO HONDURAS
ALONG 21N76W 19N80W 16N86W.  CONVECTION IS S OF THE FRONT.  A
1008 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N81W MOVING WSW
AT 8 KT.  THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S OF THE FRONT
FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 75W-85W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ALSO PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST OF S NICARAGUA FROM 10N-12N
BETWEEN 81W-85W.  FURTHER E... HISPANIOLA HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS
FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 71W-73W.  FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N82W WITH SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.  FURTHER E... THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W HAS
NELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT THE
SURFACE LOW TO BE INLAND OVER NICARAGUA WITHIN 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W OF BERMUDA TO E CUBA ALONG 32N66W
21N75W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT.  A
1031MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N48W.  A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W.  A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N25W 28N30W
26N40W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF FRONT.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF
25N AND W OF 70W.  A NARROW RIDGE EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO BEYOND
32N58W.  A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 23N55W.  ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N AND E
OF 50W.  A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL E
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N20W.

$$
FORMOSA



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