[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061100
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 45W/46W SOUTH OF 12N...MOVING W
NEAR 10 KT. RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THIS WAVE MAY HAVE
FRACTURED. A 1009 MB LOW IS N/NE OF THE WAVE NEAR 15.5N43W...AND
IS BECOMING ABSORBED INTO MORE OF A BAROCLINIC TYPE ZONE FURTHER
N. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DETACHED AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING WWD AT A LOWER
LATITUDE...FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 40W-46W. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY
E OF THE WAVE AXIS DUE TO NWLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA. THE UW-CIMSS
MIMIC TPW ANIMATION SHOWS THE FRACTURE...AND THE SRN AREA OF
MOISTURE WELL.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 14N...MAINLY DUE TO
FORWARD EXTRAPOLATION. THIS WAVE IS NOT WELL DEFINED WITH
MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY...AND WILL LIKELY BE
DROPPED FROM THE MAP SOON. THE UPPER LOW THE WAVE WAS GETTING
SUPPORT FROM HAS STALLED E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. FURTHERMORE...IT APPEARS AS IF MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING/WAVE ENERGY HAS SPLIT WHICH IS NOW BEING
ANALYZED AS A TROUGH JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE
IS WELL SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE SURROUNDING
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...BUT THE FEATURE BEING ANALYZED AS A
TROPICAL WAVE IS NOT.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N30W 9N43W 8N59W. ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE MOSTLY S OF THE AXIS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 16W-25W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 29W-33W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION NOTED. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
NOTED N OF 25N E OF 93W WITH ONLY A FEW LOW CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. A
1020 MB HIGH IS LOCATED JUST S OF PENSACOLA THAT HAS MOSTLY
LIGHT WINDS ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND IT...EXCEPT A LITTLE
STRONGER NE WINDS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT GETS TAKEN OVER
BY A NEW COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE N GULF THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN NLY WINDS AND SEAS LATER TODAY THROUGH
WED NIGHT. FAIRLY UNIFORM UPPER NW FLOW IS OVER THE GULF BETWEEN
A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES AND RIDGING OVER
MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...EXTENDING
FROM NEAR THE NE COAST OF HONDURAS TO THE ERN TIP OF CUBA...THEN
CONTINUES ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND INTO THE ATLC. THE
TAIL END OF THE FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...PARTICULARLY OVER NE HONDURAS AND THE WATERS S OF
19N BETWEEN 79W-87W. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE
THROUGH WED. SHIP AND BUOY OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW NELY WINDS 20 TO
25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ALSO NOTED JUST OFF
THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER LOW IS JUST E OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. NLY FLOW AND DRY AIR BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES IS
KEEPING THE E CARIBBEAN MOSTLY TRANQUIL. MODERATE TO FRESH NE
WINDS PERSIST IN THE NW PORTION THROUGH WED WHILE LIGHT TO
MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER
FLORIDA...THE W ATLC AND THE BAHAMAS. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND
COOL/DRY WEATHER PREVAILS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM.
AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST
AREA NEAR 32N58W...THEN CONTINUES TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A ROUGHLY 100 NM WIDE BAND OF MULTI-LAYERED
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SFC
OBS DEPICT NE WINDS NEAR 20 KT WITHIN 180NM BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FOUND BEHIND THE
FRONT...EXCEPT FOR CLEAR SKIES JUST OFF NE FLORIDA. WHILE NOEL
IS MOSTLY A THING OF THE PAST...SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED LONGER
PERIOD NE SWELL ENERGY CONTINUES TO REGISTER AT THE BUOYS IN THE
WRN ATLC. THIS IS MIXING WITH MODERATE ELY SWELLS FROM A RECENT
PROLONGED FETCH OF STRONG E WINDS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. THESE
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BUT THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND WED...ALLOWING INCREASING N WINDS AND STEEP WIND
WAVES TO DEVELOP.

AN OCCLUDED 1000 MB SFC LOW IS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE AREA NEAR
32N37W...OR ABOUT 585NM SW OF THE AZORES. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...AND
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY S OR SE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 28N-34N
BETWEEN 32W-39W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR
32N27W AND CONTINUES SW TO 26N28W...THEN W AS A DISSIPATING
BOUNDARY TO 27N48W. THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE MERGING WITH THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 28N25W 20N35W...AND THEN
CONTINUES SW TO THE 1009 MB LOW NEAR 15.5N43W AS DESCRIBED IN
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
GENERALLY WITHIN 90NM OF THE TROUGH. A SEPARATE SFC
TROUGH...WHICH APPEARS TO BE A PIECE OF AN OLD FRONT...IS
GENERATING SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITHIN 60NM OF
22N52W. MODEST SFC RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC
E OF 25W.

$$
WILLIS


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