[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 5N25W 4N38W 5N40W 4N53W.
7N45W 7N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 18W-37W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC
N OF 20N. A JET STREAM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WITH
WINDS ESTIMATED AT 70 TO 90 KT EXTENDING ACROSS LOUISIANA TO
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH S OVER THE GULF BY A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL US EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA WELL N OF TAMPA NEAR
30N83W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS N OF BROWNSVILLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE
FRONT. DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF MOST OF THE GULF
WITH SOME MOIST TROPICAL AIR BEING FUNNELED ACROSS TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THUS MOST OF THE GULF
REMAINS CLEAR TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH S BUT THE
W PORTION WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONT EXITING THE GULF BY WED NIGHT/THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT PERSISTS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM W ATLC ACROSS THE E TIP OF CUBA TO NE HONDURAS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE
AREA FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 79W-86W AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
ENHANCING ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WEAK
1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N76W
AND COUPLED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS THAT RUNS ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S
OF 13N W OF 73W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL TO OVER E PUERTO RICO. SOME LOW
LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N FROM 63W-73W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E US AND AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 62W WITH A LEADING STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO THE REGION NEAR 32W56W SW TO
25N70W THEN S OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE E TIP OF CUBA
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SECOND BOUNDARY...COLD FRONT IS OFF THE
E US COAST EXTENDING THROUGH 32N79W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
JACKSONVILLE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 31N AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A JET STREAM IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 70 TO 90 KT
EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG 26N73W TO NEAR 28N64W. AN
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD
ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N50W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FROM
25N-32N BETWEEN 56W-70W. DEEP LAYERED LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC
WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR 32N36W AND THE 1004 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
30N36W. AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE
LOW WELL N OF THE REGION WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERING
THE E ATLC NEAR 32N24W SW TO 24N31W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 27N24W ALONG 20N33W TO 15N43W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 29N30W NW TO BEYOND 32N33W WITH
SIMILAR ACTIVITY WITHIN 125 NM OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 150
NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH S OF 19N. A WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS IN
THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N55W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE JUST TO THE
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 43W-52W.

$$
WALLACE





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