[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 4N30W 5N47W 4N54W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN
26W-32W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN
28W-40W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 27W TO THE COAST OF W
AFRICA.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC
N OF 20N. A JET STREAM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WITH
WINDS ESTIMATED AT 70 TO 90 KT EXTENDING ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI TO OVER S/CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH S OVER THE GULF BY A
STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US EXTENDING
ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA TO INLAND OVER BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
45 NM OF THE FRONT. DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF MOST OF
THE GULF WITH SOME MOIST TROPICAL AIR BEING FUNNELED ACROSS
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THUS MOST OF
THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH S BUT THE W PORTION HAS ALREADY BECOMING NEAR STATIONARY
AND WILL WASH OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FRONT EXITING THE GULF LAT TONIGHT INTO THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A REMNANT QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT PERSISTS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM W ATLC THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE
HONDURAS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COVERING THE AREA FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 79W-85W AND STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BROAD E/W UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WEAK 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA NEAR 11N76W AND COUPLED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS THAT RUNS
ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 75W TO INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA AND S
OF 13N FROM 67W-75W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN THE W ATLC TO THE MONA PASSAGE GENERATING SOME LOW
LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N FROM
64W-73W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS RATHER CLEAR THIS
MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E US AND AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 60W WITH A LEADING QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO THE REGION NEAR 32W55W SW TO
27N69W THEN S OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A SECOND BOUNDARY...COLD FRONT
EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 32N75W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA
BEACH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 30N AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A JET STREAM
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 70
TO 90 KT EXTENDS ACROSS S/CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG 26N74W TO NEAR
27N65W. AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE
VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N50W WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N
FROM 62W-69W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
25N-30N BETWEEN 55W-65W. DEEP LAYERED LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC
WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR 31N35W AND THE 1004 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
30N36W. AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE
LOW WELL N OF THE REGION WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERING
THE E ATLC NEAR 32N23W S TO 29N23W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 27N27W ALONG 20N35W TO 14N48W AND A SECONDARY
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE LOW ALONG 28N32W TO
25N44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE E OF
THE SURFACE LOW N OF 30N FROM 26W-34W WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF A LINE FROM 22N31W TO BEYOND 32N22W. A
WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 19N53W WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE JUST TO E PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 10N-21N BETWEEN 37W-48W.

$$
WALLACE






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