[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021104
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 32W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 31W AND 34W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 13N BETWEEN 26W AND 35W.
LINGERING SHOWERS FROM AN EARLIER AREA OF COMPARATIVELY MORE
ACTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 33W
AND 36W...MAY BE RELATED TO THIS WAVE ALSO.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. IT IS DISORGANIZED AND WITH
FEW IF ANY NEARBY SHOWERS.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM 8N13W IN COASTAL SIERRA LEONE TO 9N17W TO 8N27W 8N34W 7N45W
6N49W 7N54W 8N59W. THE STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WERE ALONG THE SIERRA LEONE/GUINEA COASTAL WATERS SIX HOURS AGO
HAVE WEAKENED/DISSIPATED WITH WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 10W
AND 50W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 65W...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
32N70W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA COAST THE FLORIDA GULF COAST
NEAR 29N83W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY NEAR 24N85W JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO SOUTH CENTRAL
GUATEMALA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE HAS BEEN
PUSHED INTO THE AREA UNDER NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE 24N85W CYCLONIC CENTER. ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS
CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS AND THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...IN THE BAHAMAS...AND EVEN ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF 28N. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN CELLS FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 67W AND 73W...
AND FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT TODAY AND TONIGHT EAST OF 90W AND SEAS FROM
6 TO 10 FT. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 30N75W
TO 27N80W TO A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N80W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO CUBA JUST WEST OF 80W
AND TO THE HONDURAS COASTAL WATERS NEAR 86W. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE 1006 MB LOW CENTER MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AFTER 48 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE 24N85W CYCLONIC CENTER. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA EASTWARD...AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO HISPANIOLA AND EVENTUALLY
ALONG 70W NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE EASTERN
25 PERCENT OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF WHAT USED TO BE A
WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STRETCHED FROM
32N51W 8N57W TWENTY FOUR HOURS AGO. THE TROUGH RIGHT NOW APPEARS
TO BE WEAKER AND WITH A MUCH LESS WELL-DEFINED BASE NEAR 3N48W.
THE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EASILY APPARENT IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...BRINGING A BIT OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE
REGION. SOME STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL
CLUSTERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM SOUTH OF JAMAICA AND WESTERN
HISPANIOLA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 65W...
A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS THE REMNANT OF MELISSA NEAR
18N42W. A FEW BURSTS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO
22N BETWEEN 41W AND 43W...AND FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 37W AND
39W. THE WIND FLOW/PRESSURE PATTERN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 24N85W GULF OF MEXICO
CYCLONIC CENTER...BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ALONG 70W...BECOMING CYCLONIC AROUND WHAT REMAINS FROM
YESTERDAY'S WELL-DEFINED TROUGH. THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH MAY BE
NEAR 3N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN
52W AND 59W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 10N47W TO 19N40W AND
27N40W. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 25W AND 40W. A SMALL
CYCLONIC CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED NEAR 31N35W. A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N15W TO 28N15W TO 24N19W TO
22N26W. THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS DISSIPATED
SOUTH OF 30N.

$$
MT





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