[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032311
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N87W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST N OF THE LOW ACROSS
NE FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 31N78W. CURRENTLY THE LOW IS
CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW LEVEL SWIRL WITH THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 23N TO
OVER THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 85W-92W. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS
SOME POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.

BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 29N71W TO OVER THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 22N75W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS A LARGE AREA E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 20N-28N W OF
61W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE TODAY BUT BEGIN A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION
ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED AS A 1011 MB IS CENTERED NEAR
10N42W ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 42W WHICH IS ABOUT
1200 NM EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER A BROAD
AREA FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 35W-46W AND ARE ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WEAK
LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N22W 9N39W 8N49W 8N61W. IN
ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW/TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND AND MOVING OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
10N-12N. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-8N
BETWEEN 18W-23W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS OVER THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE
FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER ALONG 23N89W TO A SMALL UPPER LOW ALONG
THE COAST OF MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N95W. THIS
UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES. DRY SOMEWHAT STABLE UPPER AIR COVERS THE E
AND W GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE GULF AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WHERE A BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS IS
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS CUBA AND GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY S OF 26N E OF 83W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE BAHAMAS EXTENDS S DOMINATING THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW WHERE THE
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA W
OF 86W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 11N ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES
BETWEEN 71W-83W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER COSTA RICA AND S
NICARAGUA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS ENJOYING MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W
AND COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 62W AND EXTENDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SECOND SECTION OF THE SPECIAL
FEATURES IS BENEATH THIS UPPER HIGH. THERE IS ENOUGH UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH...ALSO IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES...TO GENERATE
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER
THE BAHAMA ISLANDS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF 29N...THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. A SMALL
UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N60W WITH AN WEAK
UPPER RIDGE TO THE E EXTENDING ALONG 55W FROM 23N-30N AND IS
GENERATING SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 50W-57W. A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N FROM 30W-47W WITH
A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION ALONG 32N33W TO 28N45W BECOMING
STATIONARY TO 28N53W WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. BROAD
E/W UPPER RIDGE EXETNDS FROM OFF AFRICA TO NEAR 50W WITH THE
AXIS ALONG 11W/12N. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND TROPICAL MOISTURE
ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 17N46W TO 29N32W.
THE REMNANTS OF MELISSA ARE CENTERED BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE
NEAR 21N47W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
AWAY FROM THE LOW AND COVERING THE AREA WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM 22N43W 23N47W TO 23N51W.

$$
WALLACE




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