[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090442
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE OCT 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ANALYZED
AS A 1004 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 18N86W MOVING
ERRATICALLY. BROAD ILL-DEFINED UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE REACHING THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WEAK SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH SHOWER/CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WEAK
SATELLITE SIGNATURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN 57W-59W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 7N27W 9N47W 9N62W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN
45W-42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 10W-42W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS MEXICO
INTO THE W GULF W OF 96W WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM OVER LOUISIANA TO NEAR 24N95W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN THE
W ATLC EXTENDS W OVER THE E GULF E OF 87W WITH AN INDUCED UPPER
RIDGE BETWEEN. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 24N BETWEEN
89W-96W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERS THE S GULF
ENHANCING THE SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF
21N E OF 92W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE S GULF S OF 24N E OF 95W INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. THE E GULF N OF 24N E OF 87W IS UNDER DRY
STABLE AIR THUS CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT IS THE 1004 MB LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
ADDRESSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. OTHERWISE...A BROAD
ILL-DEFINED UPPER HIGH IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS E ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES E OF PUERTO RICO.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR
29N67W W INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO N OF 23N. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 27N60W THROUGH A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 23N69W
ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE E TIP OF CUBA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH TO 19N BETWEEN
61W-70W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N FROM 70W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 30N DRAPING
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N42W TO
23N52W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM E OF
THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR
16N48W COVERING THE AREA S OF 28N FROM 35W-60W AND EXTENDING A
NARROW RIDGE AXIS NE TO BEYOND 32N34W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO ACROSS THE
CANARY ISLANDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC OVER THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM SURFACE HIGH WELL N OF THE
REGION THROUGH 32N25W S TO NEAR 17N37W COVERING THE AREA E OF
THE COLD FRONT.

$$
WALLACE




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