[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
30N53W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NE
OF THE CENTER FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 48W-53W.  A SMALL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZED CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND
BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...DRIFTING E...IS W OF THE SURFACE CENTER
NEAR 31N57W PRODUCING WLY SHEAR ON THE SURFACE CENTER AND IS
IMPEDING SURFACE DEVELOPMENT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 63W S OF 17N MOVING
W 10 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 59W-64W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 7N30W 9N50W 12N60W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE ITCZ
AXIS BETWEEN 10W-50W.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 50W-59W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 10-15 KT NE FLOW.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N.  THE TAIL END OF A
COLD FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 29N80W TO 28N82W MOVING
E.  NO SHOWERS OR CONVECTION ARE OVER THIS PORTION OF THE
FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF N OF 22N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS CENTERED
OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W.  EXPECT
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF...WITH SHOWERS OR CONVECTION
POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CUBA...DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
17N91W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE
FROM THE LOW TO W CUBA AND CONTINUES TO THE W ATLANTIC ALONG
20N85W 23N80W.  FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THIS
LOW...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS
OVER E CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 17N-19N
BETWEEN 90W-96W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 75W-82W.  A
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.  SEE ABOVE.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR JAMAICA AT 18N78W.  ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.  A NEW
SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.  ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION FROM THE TROPICAL
WAVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N76W
29N80W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT.
FURTHER E A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N70W TO THE BAHAMAS
AND W CUBA NEAR 23N80W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 68W-75W.  A 1013 MB LOW IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION
ABOVE.  A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N31W.  A
1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT
30N18W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO DIRECTLY ABOVE THIS SURFACE
LOW.  OTHER UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE...A TROUGH OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 25N AND W OF 75W....A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC BETWEEN 60W-75W...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 31N57W...A RIDGE N OF 10N BETWEEN 40W-60W...AND A
TROUGH N OF 10N E OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA




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