[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031202
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE FELIX IS CENTERED NEAR 14.2N 76.9W OR ABOUT
225 NM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AT 03/1200 UTC...MOVING W AT 18 KT.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED FROM A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 937 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 145
KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS INCLUDING THE LATEST WATCH AND WARNING
INFORMATION. FELIX CONTINUES ON A W PATH STEERED BY A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. FELIX CONTINUES TO
LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A WELL DEFINED
EYE AND BROAD OUTFLOW MOSTLY TO THE N OF THE HURRICANE.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 105 NM OF THE CENTER IN
ALL QUADRANTS.

A 1012 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS CENTERED NEAR 11N40W MOVING
GENERALLY SW NEAR 5 KT. THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
DISPLACED W OF THE LOW FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 41W-44W. THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL-DEFINED ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME BUT THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD REGION OF LOW/MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY VERY
LIMITED.

TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED ALONG 55W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
WAVE HAS A CLASSIC BROAD INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH A MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS SEVERELY LIMITED DUE TO THE DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE ATLC.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS TILTED FROM 22N87W SE ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 15N86W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE CONTINUES
TO INTERACT WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE W AND PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N TO INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 84W TO OVER THE YUCATAN WITH THE LARGEST
CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER BELIZE AND THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL WATERS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 17N16W 42N23W 11N30W 12N38W 10N45W
10N63W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1012 MB
LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ
AXIS FROM 52W-60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 6N-13N E OF 21W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND FROM 5N-11N
BETWEEN 21W-34W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE N GULF COAST
EXTENDING FROM A WEAK 1015 MB LOW OFF THE FLORIDA NE COAST
ACROSS N FLORIDA PENINSULA THEN NE TO OVER S MISSISSIPPI TO E
TEXAS DELINEATED BY A WIND SHIFT. THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER NE MEXICO TO SW
LOUISIANA COVERING THE W GULF. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER N FLORIDA
COVERING THE FAR E GULF INDUCING AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO IS PRODUCING
ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W GULF TO GENERATE
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 21N-26N W OF 95W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO WITH SIMILAR CONVECTION PUSHING N INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 20N FROM 94W-96W AS A RESULT OF A TROPICAL WAVE
OVER S MEXICO AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA REMAINS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH POSSIBLE WIDELY ISOLATED
LOW LEVEL SHOWERS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FELIX IS THE MAIN FOCUS THIS
MORNING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ALL INTERESTS
IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR MORE DETAILS ON FELIX REFER TO THE SPECIAL
FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 87W AND AN INVERTED MID/UPPER TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE
PRODUCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
ABOVE. UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH FELIX IS PRODUCING GOOD
OUTFLOW OVER FELIX FROM 68W-82W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE
E PACIFIC REGION PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND
NICARAGUA. DRY STABLE AIR IS FILTERING IN THE WAKE OF FELIX OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN CLEARING SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM
63W-67W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SMALL UPPER LOW IS SITUATED BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS...FLORIDA...
AND CUBA NEAR 24N80W PRODUCING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE N
AND CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOSTLY N OF
THE REGION IS DRAPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION NEAR
32N54W SW ALONG 27N62W TO 28N68W WHERE IT BECOMES NEAR
STATIONARY ALONG 32N76W TO THE WEAK 1015 MB LOW OFF THE FLORIDA
COAST NEAR 30.5N79.5W CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS N
FLORIDA INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS S FORM THE LOW TO OVER S FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE
FRONT E OF 63W...WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY W
OF 69W...AND W OF A LINE FROM 31N74W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR
FORT LAUDERDALE. A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE W ATLC WITH A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 25N67W. A
NARROW AND ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDING FROM 28N52W TO JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
15N59W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE TYPICAL
E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM OFF AFRICA TO NEAR 45W CENTERED
ROUGHLY ALONG 23W/24W. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE ATLC E
OF 50W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH 32N28W ALONG
25N43W TO THE 1019 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE ATLC.

$$
WALLACE



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