[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 042344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

FELIX MADE LANDFALL ACROSS THE NE COAST OF NICARAGUA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE CENTER OF STORM HAS NOW MOVED INLAND ACROSS NRN
NICARAGUA AND IS ABOUT TI MOVE INTO HONDURAS.  AT 04/2100 UTC
FELIX IS CENTERED NEAR 14.2N 85.0W OR ABOUT 110 MI WEST OF
PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA...MOVING W AT 12 KT.  THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED HAS DECREASED TO 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.  SEE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS
INCLUDING THE LATEST WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION.  NOW THAT
FELIX IS INLAND AND INTERACTING WITH THE ROUGH TERRAIN OF
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS STEADY WEAKENING IS UNDERWAY.  THE EYE
HAS FILLED AND CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING.  RAINFALL IS NOW ONE OF
THE BIGGEST CONCERNS. FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 8 TO 12
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR...WITH
10 TO 15 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HONDURAS.  ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNT
OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.  THESE RAINS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.  PERSONS IN FLOOD-PRONE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRES...ANALYZED 1009 MB...IS CENTERED NEAR
29N74W.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS STRETCHED.  A WELL DEFINED TROUGH
HANGS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 25N80W. THIS
OVERALL STRUCTURE APPEARS NON-TROPICAL IN NATURE HOWEVER...THE
CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN
70W-75W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W S OF 22N MOVING W 15 KT.
THIS AXIS IS ROUGHLY PLACED IN THE MIDDLE OF A STRETCHED GYRE
COVERING CLOSE TO A 15 DEG E-W AREA.  A FEW SURROUNDING
SHIP/BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND A DIRECT QSCAT OVERPASS HELPED DEFINE
THE AXIS AND SUGGEST THAT THIS CYCLONIC TURNING IS AT THE SFC.
EVEN THOUGH THE WAVE STRUCTURE IS WELL DEFINED...SHOWER ACTIVITY
REMAINS VERY LIMITED LIKELY SUPPRESSED BY THE STABLE LOW TO MID
LEVEL AIR SURROUNDING THIS FEATURE.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 6N-7N BETWEEN 27W-33W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 63W/64W S OF
22N MOVING W 15 KT.  THIS WAVE HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED THIS
EVENING AND IT IS LIKELY GOING TO SPLIT...IF IT HAS NOT
ALREADY...AS THE NRN PART LIES IN A DIFFLUENT LOW LEVEL PATTERN.
SHOWER ACTIVITY...OR EVEN ORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...IS MINIMAL N OF
12N.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
TRINIDAD AND NE VENEZUELA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 61W-67W.

THE 1012 MB LOW TO THE E NEAR 11N40W ...POSSIBLY SPAWNED FROM
THE ABOVE WAVE...HAS BEEN ON A SLOW DRIFT OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS.  THIS LOW HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY
AND IT MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT ABSORBED BY THE LARGE TROPICAL WAVE
TO IT'S E. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
LOW.

THE NRN PART OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 93W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THIS ONCE ACTIVE WAVE IS NO LONGER EASILY DISCERNIBLE IN ANY OF
THE AVAILABLE DATA...THEREFORE THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
FORWARD EXTRAPOLATION. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE EPAC WATERS...SEE THE EAST PACIFIC TWD MIATWDEP FOR DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 15N30W 10N43W 8N50W 11N70W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 12W-16W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-7N BETWEEN 27W-33W...FROM 5N-7N
BETWEEN 36W-40W...AND FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 43W-47W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N91W.  A 1015
MB LOW IS JUST INLAND OVER E TEXAS NEAR 30N96W.  SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 28N98W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER TEXAS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN
94W-98W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 87W-90W.
ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S
FLORIDA FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 80W-83W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
29N91W.  A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 17N95W.  EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...THE SW GULF...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND S FLORIDA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE FELIX IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH CATEGORY ONE
INTENSITY.  FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.  SEVERAL
WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.  FOR DETAILS AND REFERENCES
SEE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE.  A LARGE FEEDER BAND IS STILL
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 80W-87W.  FURTHER S... PATCHES
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA N OF 3N.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 73W EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM FELIX IS MOSTLY SYMMETRICAL
FROM 6N-21N BETWEEN 77W-92W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS CENTERED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N64W.  EXPECT
CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W
MOSTLY DUE TO FELIX.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 29N74W.  SEE
ABOVE.  ANOTHER 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
32N55W.  A TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 28N60W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN
49W-57W.  A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
27N41W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... RIDGING
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 55W.  A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N52W.  A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 24N34W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 5W-50W.

$$
FORMOSA


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