[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020526
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N9W 2N21W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
33W TO 1S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG COVERS THE AREA FROM
2N-7N BETWEEN 19W-24W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM
2N-6N BETWEEN 24W-28W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM  1N-5N BETWEEN 4W-17W.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 16W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER HIGH IN THE E PACIFIC REGION IS RETROGRADING
WESTWARD BUT REMAINS OVER MEXICO...TEXAS AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
GULF. SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE SE US FROM
SOUTH CAROLINA ACROSS GEORGIA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
TALLAHASSEE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE
GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE. A WEAK JETSTREAM WITH
WINDS TO 90 KT EXTENDS FROM THE N GULF COAST NEAR ALABAMA/
MISSISSIPPI BORDER TO OVER W CUBA NEAR PINAR DEL RIO AND INTO
THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC
REMAINS ACROSS THE THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST THAT WILL SKIRT THE N GULF COAST
STATES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE NEXT FRONT TO IMPACT THE
GULF EXITING THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT REMAINS INLAND. OTHERWISE
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING OFF W CUBA INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS S OF
24N BETWEEN 81W-86W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A NARROWING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SW ATLC FROM THE
TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO 11N BETWEEN THE
PUERTO RICO AND CENTRAL CUBA WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW S OF HAITI
NEAR 16N73W. AN INFLUX OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER W CUBA AND OVER THE AREA OF A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF VENEZUELA TO E HISPANIOLA
COVERING THE AREA N OF 14N FROM 66W-73W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE THE UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN.
MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN AND IS  USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 66W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER HIGH IS MOVING S INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE AREA W
OF 50W CENTERED NEAR 31N60W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W
ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT TO OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH N OF THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL SE TO S FLOW CONVERGING WITH UPPER LEVEL N TO
NW FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
FAR W ATLC W OF 75W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH THE
LARGEST CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N BAHAMA
ISLANDS. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 33W-50W
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N34W
EXTENDING SW ALONG 24N40W TO 21N52W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 27N. A NARROWING UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SW ATLC FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF
23N BETWEEN 70W-75W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED DEEP IN THE
TROPICS COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 25N E OF 63W AND THE E
CARIBBEAN INTO E ATLC WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE COVERING
THE E ATLC E OF THE FRONT.

$$
WALLACE



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