[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021040
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N4W 3N10W 4N23W 2N32W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 37W TO 2S47W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG IS WITHIN
60 NM OF LINE FROM THE ITCZ AXIS NEAR 9W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR
14W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 23W-28W AND FROM 2N TO
S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 23W-31W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
S OF 2N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 41W-46W. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERING MEXICO
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF.
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA.
THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC REMAINS ACROSS
THE E GULF AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST
WITH A 1018 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR HOUSTON. THIS FRONT WILL SKIRT
THE N GULF COAST STATES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE NEXT
FRONT TO IMPACT THE GULF WILL EXIT THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT REMAINS
INLAND. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE FLORIDA STRAITS
TO THE FLORIDA KEYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SW ATLC ACROSS THE
TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO 12N BETWEEN THE
PUERTO RICO AND CENTRAL CUBA. AN INFLUX OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 73W-81W COVERING S
HAITI...W CUBA AND JAMAICA. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA 12N72W TO THE S TIP OF
HISPANIOLA GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF THE TROUGH N OF 14N
BETWEEN 66W-71W TO OVER PUERTO RICO GULF OF VENEZUELA TO E
HISPANIOLA COVERING THE AREA N OF 14N FROM 67W-71W. THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE E
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AND IS USHERING IN LOW LEVEL ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W TO OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 50W CENTERED NEAR
31N61W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC W OF 40W TO OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB
HIGH N OF THE REGION. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER
THE SW ATLC FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND E CUBA NEAR 77W GENERATING CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR W ATLC
S OF 27N BETWEEN 71W-78W. A BAND OF SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
IS OFF THE E COAST OF THE US WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 29N80W TO
BEYOND 32N77W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT N OF THE
REGION AND INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH GEORGIA TO THE LOW
CENTERED OVER HOUSTON TEXAS. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL
ATLC FROM 30W-50W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
REGION NEAR 32N32W EXTENDING SW TO 26N36W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO
21N45W. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS N OF THE REGION. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED DEEP IN THE TROPICS COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF
24N E OF 63W AND THE E CARIBBEAN INTO E ATLC.

$$
WALLACE





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