[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 4N20W 3N30W...CROSSING
THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S45W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SOUTH OF 6N. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE
AREA OF THIS PRECIPITATION.

...DISCUSSION...

MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 46W...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN
70W AND 80W. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
13N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 26N ACROSS THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN 70W
AND 84W IN WESTERN CUBA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW AT THE
SOUTHERN END OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST
IS HELPING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF FLORIDA FROM 26N
TO 30N...AND FROM 29N TO 30N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 46W AND 70W. A CENTER APPEARS TO BE
NEAR 27N61W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 76W/77W FROM 11N TO 20N INCLUDING
CUTTING ACROSS JAMAICA. THE TROUGH IS COMPARATIVELY NOT AS WELL
DEFINED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND IT ON THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
ANYWHERE NEAR THIS TROUGH MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAN IT IS TO THE TROUGH. OTHER SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SURFACE EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW...SOUTH OF 18N WEST
OF 80W...AND TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH.

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS MEXICO
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALL THE
WAY TO FLORIDA. BROAD SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS EASILY
EVIDENT IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD. A COMPARATIVELY WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS AS ONLY THE 1020 MB ISOBAR CUTS
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 40W...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 34N31W TO 29N28W TO 25N28W. THE TROUGH
HAS BECOME MORE IN PHASE WITH A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N27W TO 30N27W TO 24N30W AND 22N32W. A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 32N55W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W...AND NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN THE 32N27W 22N32W COLD FRONT AND 80W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND AN EAST-WEST RIDGE ROUGHLY ALONG 10N
FROM THE AFRICA COAST TO THE SOUTH AMERICA COAST. ANOTHER RIDGE
IS ALONG 12N25W 22N21W...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...BEYOND THE
MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO.


$$
MT



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