[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 040033 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 03 2008

COR FOR THE LATITUDE/LONGITUDE OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AREAS AS HEADERS...FROM WEST OF 46W TO WEST OF 40W...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 5N20W 3N30W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W...TO 1S40W...AND INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 3S47W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
CLUSTERS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 2N12W 5N14W 7N17W 7N19W
6N22W 3N24W...AND WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N34W
3N35W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 36W TO 1S37W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH
AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 40W...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. A TROUGH GOES FROM THE CENTER TO 16N76W AND
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO 26N ACROSS THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN 65W AND 85W
IN WESTERN CUBA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW AT THE SOUTHERN
END OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...AND
A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA ARE HELPING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF FLORIDA FROM 26N TO 30N...AND NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN
70W AND 80W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W. A CENTER
APPEARS TO BE NEAR 25N59W. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ORIGINATES OVER COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA.
IT MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BEYOND 20N60W...STAYING SOUTH
OF 26N NEAR 45W...AND IT CONTINUES EASTWARD BEYOND 25N30W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N TO 18N ALONG 83W/85W...FROM
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO EASTERN HONDURAS AND INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS IS THE SAME TROUGH THAT WAS
ALONG 61W/62W A FEW DAYS AGO. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COVER THE AREA
FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 88W. OTHER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN SURFACE EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW...SOUTH OF 18N EAST OF 70W...
FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND NORTH OF 18N WEST OF
80W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE EAST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWESTWARD.

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS MEXICO
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALL
THE WAY TO FLORIDA. BROAD SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS
EASILY EVIDENT IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD. A COMPARATIVELY WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS WITH THE 1016 MB ISOBAR
RUNNING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
AND THE 1020 MB ISOBAR RUNNING FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 40W...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 36N24W TO 32N24W TO 23N24W. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO 26N21W TO
20N27W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N22W 29N24W TO A 1015 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N34W...TO 24N40W AND 25N44W. THIS TROUGH
MARKS A SEPARATE AIRMASS MOVING SOUTHWARD WITH THE DEEP LAYER
TROUGH. A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N54W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO
A 31N70W COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA...BETWEEN 45W AND 75W.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND AN EAST-WEST RIDGE
ROUGHLY ALONG 12N FROM THE AFRICA COAST TO THE SOUTH AMERICA
COAST.


$$
MT




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