[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 6N16W 2N30W 1N41W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 47W TO 1S52W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 14W-22W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 22W-30W...FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
32W-41W...AND FROM 2N S OF THE ITCZ AXIS TO S OF THE EQUATOR W
OF 41W TO INLAND OVER THE SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
ITCZ AXIS FROM 11W-14W AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 42W-49W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL US GENERATING HEAVY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM E TEXAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO S OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
IS MOVING OVER N TEXAS AND WILL ENTER THE GULF LATE TODAY INTO
SAT. BROAD UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDING
OVER MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF TO 84W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC REMAINS ACROSS THE E GULF S OF A FRONT
THAT CUTS ACROSS THE N GULF COAST STATES FROM THE W ATLC. ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS IN THE
W ATLC. SOUTHERLY SURFACE RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF IS BANKING
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE N GULF COAST
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE
FAR E GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA E OF 83W INTO THE CARIBBEAN
AND W ATLC GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM W CUBA TO 26N E OF
87W. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR AGAIN
THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN TO 12N BETWEEN 72W-85W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN
69W-82W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N87W TO INLAND
OVER HONDURAS AND IS LOSING ITS IDENTITY AS IT CROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SAT. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN LOW LEVEL
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 71W TO OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W
CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 72W WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
FROM W CUBA TO OVER S FLORIDA AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS W OF
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS N OF THE
REGION EXTENDING FROM A 1019 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER TO INLAND OVER GEORGIA
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 31N FROM
76W-80W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE E GULF
OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 29N56W. LARGE UPPER
LOW IS IN THE NE ATLC JUST S OF THE AZORES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COVERING THE AREA N OF 24N BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 32W.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING AS IT ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR 32N16W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 21N24W. A SECOND SURGE
IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N25W TO 26N31W.
A SMALL 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N32W. BROAD E/W UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N FROM AFRICA TO THE E
CARIBBEAN.

$$
WALLACE





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net