[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091023
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 4N21W 2N35W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 42W TO 2S47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/MODERATE STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 10W-15W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO
S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 21W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 7N47W TO 6N52W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS MEXICO
AND MOST OF GULF W OF 86W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
ACROSS W CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS ALONG 24N81W TO 25N85W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N E OF 86W THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR COVERS MOST OF THE GULF WITH LOW CLOUDS BANKING IN THE W
GULF W OF 95W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS AND NE MEXICO AND OVER THE NE
GULF N OF 27N E OF 88W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXTENDING A STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH
TEXAS. THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF BUT A SECOND
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI
INTO SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM NE HONDURAS TO CENTRAL CUBA BUT DUE
TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ABLE TO FORM WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W CUBA FROM
82W-84W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM THE E/W UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE TROPICS.
MODERATE/STRONG E TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ARE USHERING IN
SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 13N E OF 67W TO OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND
AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COASTLINE. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS REMARKABLY CLEAR TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
OVER THE FAR W ATLC W OF 74W WITH A COMPLEX BUT WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM ENTERING THE REGION THROUGH A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 31N71W TO
A SECOND 1014 MB LOW NEAR 28N72W CONTINUING AS A COLD FRONT TO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W THEN AGAIN STATIONARY TO A 1015
MB LOW JUST W OF ANDROS ISLAND NEAR 25N77W AND A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N-26N W OF 77W TO THE COAST OF SE
FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM 27N72W TO 32N67W. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS CONNECTED TO AN
ADDITIONAL 1014 MB LOW NEAR 29N51W WITH A NEAR STATIONARY
BOUNDARY EXTENDING NE TO BEYOND 32N62W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE MEAN
AXIS ALONG 52W AND A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 25N60W. BROAD UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 26N BETWEEN 12W-40W WITH A COMPLEX
FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE REGION. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS
INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N14W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO
27N19W AND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH 32N17W ALONG 27N28W THEN NW TO BEYOND 32N42W. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE IS S OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH A 1015 MB HIGH
LOCATED NEAR 18N32W. BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICS.

$$
WALLACE



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