[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141014
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 5N20W 2N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. A LARGE CLUSTER
OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA AND 16W FROM 3N-7N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W AND 29W.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE CONVECTION IS BETWEEN THE AXIS AND 6S W OF
28W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT NE AND
WEAKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WESTERN GULF. FLOW AROUND
THE SFC RIDGE HAS CAUSED COLD AIR STRATUS TO BACK UP AGAINST THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. AS OF 09Z...A SFC TROUGH STRETCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS FROM THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
NEAR 29N83W ALONG 26N89W TO 26N95W. A BAND OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE TROUGH. ALOFT...NEAR ZONAL
FLOW RESIDES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
CONVECTION AROUND THE SFC TROUGH...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AT THE BASE
OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS KEEPING THE FAR
NORTHERN GULF RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE. SWLY FLOW AROUND AN UPPER
HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN IS TRANSPORTING UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER
THE STRAIGHTS OF FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. AS OF
09Z...THE FRONT WAS DEPICTED FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W ALONG
20N84W THEN OVER THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NEAR 18N88W. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME N AND INCREASE TO 20 KT. PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL FROM SE CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATER
TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE
CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE
EASTERLY TRADES...STRONGER WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING
EXCEPT OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WHERE DIVERGENCE ALOFT COMBINED
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF 70W.
EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 09Z...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W
ATLC NEAR 31N68W AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W AND
CROSSES OVER CUBA NEAR 23N80W. A BAND OF ASSOCIATED MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
RESIDES WITHIN 60 NM OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS REMAINING UP TO 180 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. BEHIND THE
FRONT...NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT INCREASE TO 25 KT LATER TODAY.
FARTHER EAST...A LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB SFC HIGH NEAR
28N48W COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. THE RIDGE IS BROKEN
BY THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE ATLC
NEAR 31N26W AND STRETCHES TO 27N30W. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS
ARE BEING TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE REGION BY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THE RIDGE. ALOFT...SWLY UPPER FLOW BETWEEN AN ELONGATED
TROUGH AND RIDGE IN THE E ATLC IS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC BETWEEN 8N-14N.

$$

WADDINGTON






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