[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161726
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 30W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S49W.  SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 10W-13W...AND FROM EQ-5N
BETWEEN 20W-24W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N
BETWEEN 25W-30W...AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 42W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA NEAR 38N79W.  HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  BROKEN
TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF FROM W CUBA TO LOUISIANA.  SURFACE WINDS ARE ELY TO
SELY 15-20 KT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF.  EXPECT CONTINUED RETURN
FLOW FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM HAITI TO
S OF JAMAICA ALONG 20N72W 16N78W.  LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
PANAMA ALONG 13N81W 9N80W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
OF THE TROUGH.  ELSEWHERE...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE
OVER INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE.  SIMILAR LOW
CLOUDS ARE OVER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 20N-24N
BETWEEN 82W-87W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA TO COSTA RICA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS
S TO HISPANIOLA ALONG 32N60W 25N65W 20N71W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS
FURTHER W AND EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA ALONG 32N65W 23N70W
20N74W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THIS FRONT.  A
1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N38W PRODUCING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS N OF 25N
BETWEEN 70W-80W.  A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
20N56W.  A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N37W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-60W.  UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 22N BETWEEN 60W-67W....AND
N OF 27N BETWEEN 71W-76W.  EXPECT THE TWO COLD FRONTS TO MERGE
AND EXTEND FROM 32N61W TO HISPANIOLA IN 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT
CONVECTION.

$$
FORMOSA







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