[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171819 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 4N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 2N10W 2N20W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 30W...1S36W...AND STAYING FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1S
BETWEEN 36W AND NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 52W. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO THE COAST OF AFRICA
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 2W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN
10W AND 20W...SOUTH OF 5N23W 5N41W 7N53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...AND
THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WEST OF MEXICO IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 28N. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH THE AREAS FROM CALIFORNIA TO WEST
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ALONG 92W FROM THE COAST OF LOUISIANA TO MEXICO JUST
WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 17N97W. THE REST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO IS COVERED BY DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 28N73W TO WESTERN
CUBA NEAR 23N80W...TO 17N81W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N62W 25N65W...CUTTING ACROSS THE EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO 18N70W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 18N70W TO 16N78W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 31N59W 26N62W
21N67W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 30N65W TO 24N73W
TO 23N78W AT THE COAST OF CUBA. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
THE LINE THROUGH 30N70W 28N74W TO 26N78W NEAR GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND AND ABACO ISLAND.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BASE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH STRECTHES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 32N70W INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROAD AND
COMPARATIVELY WEAKER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE 32N70W
17N81W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N80W TO 16N78W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA COASTAL
WATERS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N
TO 20N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W...AND IN TRADEWIND FLOW FROM 13N TO
17N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 10N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 53W...EAST OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DEEP LAYER
TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 33N40W TO 28N49W TO 21N56W INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 14N65W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF
THE ITCZ EAST OF THE 32N62W TO 18N70W COLD FRONT. A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 21N51W TO 13N53W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM 13N64W
TO 17N59W TO 23N57W.

$$
MT




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