[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191034
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N6W 3N26W 2N40W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 48W TO 1S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 4W-7W...WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 21W-27W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA
NEAR 7N11W TO 3N12W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR W OF 33W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 19/0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE JUST E OF PENSACOLA EXTENDING TO 26N93W WHERE IT
BECOMES NEAR STATIONARY S OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO MEXICO
NEAR VERACRUZ. A SECOND NEAR STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS ALONG
THE SE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
28N TO INLAND OVER SE ALABAMA AND ACROSS GEORGIA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT WITH BROKEN/
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90
NM W OF THE ENTIRE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE GULF N OF 24N WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION COVERS THE SW GULF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
COVERS THE SE GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AND IS NOW OVER THE W ATLC. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
REMAINS OVER THE GULF IN SPITE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE
DRIEST AIR OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N TO INLAND OVER THE SE US
THUS CLEARING SKIES W OF THE FRONTAL CLOUDS. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF IS QUIET AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
TO CONTINUE TO STALL OVER THE S GULF AND BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK N
AND THE PORTION OVER THE US CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER E/W RIDGE FROM THE TROPICS DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN
GIVING MOST OF THE AREA UPPER WESTERLY FLOW. MODERATE/STRONG NE
TO E TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE TRADE WINDS COUPLED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF 77W TO OVER THE
YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS ALONG THE COAST OF GUATEMALA AND BELIZE. A 1008
MB LOW IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF E
PANAMA E OF 78W. OTHERWISE THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RELATIVELY
CLEAR AGAIN THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT E COVERING THE W ATLC W OF
68W TO THE E COAST OF FLORIDA WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY
A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 29N72W. NARROW DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS
THE AREA FROM 58W-68W WITH THE UPPER LOW WELL N OF THE REGION.
AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR
32N58W ALONG 25N63W TO NEAR 22N69W WHERE IT BEGINS TO PUSH BACK
N OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO 21N75W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE
FRONT N OF 27N. BROAD DEEP LAYERED RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 25N40W AND THE SURFACE
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 32N43W. AN DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
COVERS E ATLC TO 22N E OF 30W TO INLAND OVER NW AFRICA WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE E ATLC OVER WESTERN SAHARA
NEAR 26N14W TO 25N19W THEN DISSIPATES TO NEAR 25N27W. THE AREA
OF THE E ATLC IS RELATIVELY DRY THUS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
INDICATED. THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICS
REMAINS TO THE S GENERATING A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE
REGION NEAR 20N16W 16N30W TO 14N50W.

$$
WALLACE





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