[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191815
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 4N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 2N10W 2N20W 2N30W 1N40W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 45W...AND ENTERING NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL
NEAR 1S51W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SOUTH OF AFRICA EAST OF 10W...AND SOUTH OF 7N11W 6N20W 5N30W
5N47W 5N53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BUILT OVER MEXICO...SENDING UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AS FAR TO THE NORTH AS SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW HAS MOVED INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF 90W AT THE SAME TIME THAT THE RESIDENT
DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD. THIS DEEP LAYER
TROUGH IS THE ONE THAT HAS BEEN GUIDING THE CURRENT GULF OF
MEXICO COLD FRONT EASTWARD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE TROUGH
COVERS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BEYOND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA BETWEEN 75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND AROUND
90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT RIGHT NOW PASSES
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 31N86W TO 27N90W TO 23N95W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N95W TO MEXICO NEAR 18N95W.
THE STATIONARY FRONT BREAKS UP AND CONTINUES OVER INTERIOR
MEXICO FROM 18N97W TO 23N101W. SHOWERS THAT ARE DEVELOPING AND
ALTERNATELY DYING ARE FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W...
AND FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. SHOWERS THAT APPEAR
TO BE WEAKENING ARE OVER LAND FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA INTO
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND MOVING OFFSHORE. SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THAT MAY OR MAY NOT BE ATTRIBUTED TO
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING
FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W. STILL OTHER SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN BELIZE ALSO HAVE BEEN WEAKENING WITH TIME.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS ITS
BASE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SHOWERS THAT MAY
OR MAY NOT BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DEEP LAYER
TROUGH HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 83W AND
86W. STILL OTHER SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN BELIZE ALSO HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING WITH TIME. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA IN GENERAL. WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SEPARATE AREA
OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA AND A DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH ARE MIXED IN WITH THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
TRADEWIND FLOW FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 57W AND 65W...AND
ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
23N58W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 15N61W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE DEEP LAYER WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH STILL EXISTS BUT IT
IS NOT AS COMPARATIVELY BEAUTIFUL AS IT HAS BEEN DURING THE LAST
FEW DAYS. IT REMAINS THROUGH 31N54W TO 23N58W...INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N61W...AND SOUTHWARD TO NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N56W TO 25N62W...
CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N62W TO 22N70W AND
21N75W IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH THIS
FRONT ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N72W 24N65W
25N62W 26N60W 28N57W BEYOND 31N55W. A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT NEAR
29N68W. A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N43W. A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO THE CANARY
ISLANDS...TO 23N20W TO 17N20W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER
AFRICA AND REACHES THE SOUTHERN MOROCCO COAST NEAR 23N/24N ALONG
16W...TO 23N20W AND 22N33W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 17N36W TO 9N44W.

$$
MT

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