[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202323
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 3N30W 3N30W TO THE EQUATOR AT
50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-6N BETWEEN 16W-19W...AND FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 24W-27W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN
37W-42W...AND FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 46W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 28N80W 26N84W 25N90W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF FRONT.  A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N88W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.  BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER SE TEXAS AND THE NW GULF
OF MEXICO.  SURFACE WINDS RANGE FROM 5-15 KT OVER THE GULF.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH
AXIS ALONG 92W.  A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N
GULF N OF 26N.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF.  EXPECT... THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE BAHAMAS TO
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS WITH VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.  AREAS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE NOTED INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...
AND COSTA RICA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF E CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA.  MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN
58W-62W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
W OF 80W.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
80W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE SEA.  A BAND OF SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS HOWEVER OVER THE SRN CARIBBEAN S OF 14N.
EXPECT... CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N77W
AND EXTENDS SW TO S FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W.  A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS
FROM 32N75W TO 28N78W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM E OF THE FRONT.  A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A
COLD FRONT...IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N52W 26N60W
22N68W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  A
1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N33W.  ANTICYCLONIC
SURFACE FLOW IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 20W-50W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A TROUGH IS W OF 60W.  A BROAD RIDGE IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 35W-60W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 20N E OF 35W.  ZONAL FLOW IS
OVER THE TROPICS S OF 20N BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND W
AFRICA.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT AND THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVER SLOWLY E DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

$$
FORMOSA




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