[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230610
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 2N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 43W TO 2S50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 12W-15W...AND FROM EQ-2N
BETWEEN 35W-40W.  A SECONDARY ITCZ AXIS IS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR
ALONG 2S1W 7S10W 7S25W 3S40W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-4S BETWEEN 1W-2W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-8S BETWEEN 26W-30W... AND
FROM 2S-5S BETWEEN 31W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
29N88W PRODUCING 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 91W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER LOUISIANA
FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 91W-94W.  ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NE MEXICO N OF TAMPICO BETWEEN
98W-101W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W
GULF OF MEXICO W OF 91W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER
THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA N OF 25N AND E OF 85W.  AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF PRODUCING MOSTLY NWLY
FLOW.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS W OF 91W WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE E OF 91W.  EXPECT...RETURN FLOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF W OF 92W
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND N OF PUERTO RICO.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N AND E OF 70W
WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRODUCING BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH A 1010 MB SURFACE
LOW NEAR 31N76W AND AN UPPER LEVEL CENTER NEAR 30N76W.  A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO THE N BAHAMAS ALONG 27N77W 25N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM
31N-32N BETWEEN 72W-74W.  ANOTHER 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 27N70W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S TO THE S
BAHAMAS ALONG 24N69W 21N71W WITH NO PRECIPITATION.  ANOTHER DEEP
LAYERED LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH A 1010 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 33N50W AND AN UPPER LEVEL CENTER NEAR 33N48W.  A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO 25N56W WITH NO
PRECIPITATION.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE UPPER
CENTER FROM 34N-35N BETWEEN 46W-48W.  A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N26W.

$$
FORMOSA



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