[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240524
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 2N20W 1N40W EQ50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 10W-12W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 21W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W PRODUCING 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
N MEXICO AND S TEXAS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 99W-102W MOVING E.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 95W
PRODUCING MOSTLY NWLY FLOW.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
INLAND OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE ENTIRE GULF.  EXPECT...RETURN FLOW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF W OF 95W DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND N OF PUERTO RICO.  A 1006 MB LOW IS
INLAND OVER CENTRAL COLOMBIA NEAR 6N74W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN
69W-74W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER SRN VENZUELA S
OF 7N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS DOMINATED BY
THE WRN EXTENT OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED IN THE
ATLANTIC NEAR 7N49W PRODUCING SWLY FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE SEA.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 15N WHILE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS OVER NRN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE S
CARIBBEAN S OF 15N.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH A 1011 MB SURFACE
LOW NEAR 28N71W AND AN UPPER LEVEL CENTER NEAR 28N70W.  A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S TO THE SRN BAHAMAS ALONG 25N69W 21N71W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE UPPER LOW
CENTER FROM 29N-30N BETWEEN 65W-70W.  ANOTHER 1011 MB LOW IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N64W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S
ALONG 27N60W 23N63W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF
THE TROUGH.   A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ALONG 32N40W 27N44W 23N50W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
E OF THE TROUGH.  A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
37N16W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 24N37W.  EXPECT ALL THE
SURFACE LOWS AND TROUGHS IN THE ATLANTIC TO SHIFT E OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT CONVECTION.

$$
FORMOSA



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