[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N2W 1N11W 4N32W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 45W. BROAD AREA OF SW UPPER FLOW IS STREAMING OFF
SOUTH AMERICA AND GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE WITH
EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA
WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM 7N40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 2S45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD COVERING THE E US
AND MOVING TOWARD THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS NE FLORIDA ENTERING THE GULF NEAR TAMPA
CONTINUING S TO 25N85W THEN SW INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
18N93W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE SE SLOPES
OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE FRONT. THE AREA NW
OF THE FRONT IS REMARKABLY CLEAR THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND A 1027 MB HIGH IS ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N95W BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE AREA. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
WITH WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 21N W OF THE FRONT INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MOST OF THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE GULF
LATER TONIGHT/SAT MORNING WITH THE REMNANTS REMAINING OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE GULF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NARROWING UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN W OF
70W ANCHORED BY A UPPER HIGH BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS AND AN UPPER LOW IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS COVERING
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. DRY STABLE AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS DOMINATES MUCH OF
THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. THESE TRADE WINDS AS WELL AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THAT AREA. THE
TRADE WINDS ARE ALSO BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AND TO
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E US AND AND GULF OF
MEXICO IS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING ALONG THE COAST FROM SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA INTO
THE GULF ACROSS NE FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT. AN NARROWING
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N72W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 68W. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N58W COVERING
THE AREA FROM 10N-23N BETWEEN 51W-70W INCLUDING THE E CARIBBEAN.
A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION EXTENDS FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N57W ALONG 17N58W 21N66W TO 26N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 215 NM E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 14N-20N. SMALL UPPER HIGH IS N OF THE UPPER
LOW NEAR 28N52W COVERING THE AREA N OF 23N FROM 45W-58W. BROAD
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 30N E OF 18W WITH A SHEAR
AXIS EXTENDING FROM W ALONG 30N34W TO 24N41W. A WEAKENING
SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW FROM 19N39W TO
28N37W. THE BROAD SW UPPER FLOW MENTIONED IN THE ITCZ SECTION
COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC W OF 50W AND A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF
80 TO 130 KT IS WITHIN 200/300 NM OF LINE FROM 15N50W ALONG
23N28W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR 25N15W.

$$
WALLACE




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