[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032327
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N20W 2N30W 1N40W AND INTO S
AMERICA NEAR EQ50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-35W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS BETWEEN THE AXIS AND THE COAST OF BRAZIL WEST OF
37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AROUND A 1024 MB SFC HIGH NEAR THE
GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF REGION.
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS PRODUCING LOW-LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SIMILAR
CONVECTION AND TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAIGHTS. ALOFT...A STRONG SWLY JET WITH CORE WINDS NEAR 130 KT
IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE GULF. FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
A DRY STABLE AIRMASS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO PUSH PATCHY CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. NEARLY ALL OF THE
CONVECTION IS SHALLOW IN NATURE CAPPED BY ABUNDANT SUBSIDENCE
AND NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
EXPECT... LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A REMNANT SFC TROUGH ENTERS THE W ATLC
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N79W AND EXTENDS TO THE FLORIDA COAST
NEAR 29N81W. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. FATHER EAST...A WEAK
SFC TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 27N38W 23N39W 19N39W. A LARGE AREA OF
DIFFUSE MOISTURE IS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH FROM 22N-28N
BETWEEN 31W-39W. AN ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR
33N45W. THIS PRESSURE PATTERN IS PRODUCING NE TO E WINDS 20 TO
25 KT N OF 13N ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A NARROW LINE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM 31N57W TO
27N65W BEING PUSHED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION. A
TROPICAL JET WITH CORE WINDS NEAR 120 KT IS TRANSPORTING UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC E OF 50W.


$$
WADDINGTON





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net