[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040451
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0415 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
6N10W 3N20W 3N30W 1N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 46W...
INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS SOUTH
OF 6N BETWEEN 13W AND 54W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW MOVES FROM NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA...SOUTHEAST
OF 10N60W 18N39W BEYOND 22N20W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA ALSO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR/SUBSIDENCE EVERYWHERE...MINIMIZING THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WEST
OF CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO. THIS DIGGING TROUGH AMPLIFIES THE
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS MEXICO AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO PUSH PATCHY CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. NEARLY ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS SHALLOW BECAUSE THE AREA IS CAPPED BY ABUNDANT
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN PASSING THROUGH 31N76W TO 29N79W.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE LATE NIGHT/
EARLY MORNING HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ALONG A RIDGE
FROM 34N23W TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N34W
TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N46W TO A 1026 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N62W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR
26N78W. THIS PRESSURE PATTERN IS PRODUCING NORTHEAST-TO-EAST
WINDS RANGING FROM 20 KT TO 25 KT IN THE AREA NORTH OF 13N IN
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. A CENTRAL-TO-EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N33W 28N34W
22N37W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 38W/39W FROM 19N TO 26N.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 21N TO 28N BETWEEN 32W AND 42W.
A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA EXTENDS FROM 32N60W BEYOND
34N56W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL JET STREAM WITH CORE WINDS NEAR
120 KT IS TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 50W.

$$
MT



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