[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE FEB 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
7N12W 6N20W 3N30W 2N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 47W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 43W AND
48W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 25W AND 27W...AND FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN 34W AND 36W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM
3N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 23W...AND ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN
10W AND 40W...AND SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...STAYING SOUTHEAST OF 10N60W 13N50W 19N40W
23N30W BEYOND 24N16W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE AREA.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE EVERYWHERE REDUCES THE
CHANCE FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. SURFACE WIND FLOW IS
FROM THE SOUTH ON THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE
THAT RUNS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 30N72W AND CROSSES FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/BAJA CALIFORNIA/MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.A.
THIS DIGGING TROUGH AMPLIFIES THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE. LOW-TOP CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NORTHWARD...
AND OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO PUSH PATCHY CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. POSSIBLE
SHOWERS IN PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS EAST OF 70W...FROM
11N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...IN THE WATERS BETWEEN HAITI
JAMAICA AND CUBA...SOUTH OF 15N WEST OF 80W INTO CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND SOUTH OF 20N WEST OF 80W TOWARD LAND. THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND BROAD LOW
PRESSURE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING FRESH TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ALONG A RIDGE FROM THE MADEIRA ISLANDS
TO 31N30W TO 30N44W...MOVING TO A SEPARATE 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 30N72W...AND THEN TO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. A CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N52W TO 27N54W
TO 20N58W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
33N40W TO 32N43W. SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W.
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N52W
BEYOND 32N43W. A WEAKENING CENTRAL-TO-EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N30W TO 26N33W
TO 21N38W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 36W FROM 20N TO 28N.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 29W AND 37W.

$$
MT



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